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Re-forecasts are made every four days during each month on 1/5/9/13/17/21/25/29 (excluding 29 February). These are the re-forecast base-dates for medium range.
The set of re-forecasts for forecasts for the M-climate s made up from:
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- nine consecutive re-forecasts
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- centred on the M-climate base date and covering a forecast period of 15 days
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- . The middle
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- re-forecast corresponds to the
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- closest base-date preceding the actual ensemble run date.
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- re-forecasts are derived by re-
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- running an 11-member ensemble (1 control and 10 perturbed members)
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- using the same calendar start date for each of the last 20 years. Thus there are 20 years x 9
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- re-forecasts x 11 ensemble members = 1980 re-forecast values.
These are available at forecast intervals of 6 hours for each forecast parameter, for each forecast lead-time and for each calendar start date and location. They are used to define the M-Climate.
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The M-climate is used in association with the ensemble forecast:
- to present compare the meteograms from the 15-day ensemble meteograms with forecast against the medium range climate (M-climate).
- to deliver the extreme forecast index (EFI) and shift of tails (SOT) products products.
- to highlight significant forecast departures of 2m temperature, wind speed, cloudiness and precipitation and other parameters from the norm for a given location and time of year.
Values evaluated in M-climate
- 2m temperature.
- soil temperature.
- sea-surface temperature.
- mean sea level pressure.
- precipitation.
- cloudiness.
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