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Try to reproduce the plots in the article.
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- HRES & analysis only. Perhaps ECMWF ensemble? (modified ensemble in later task).
Plots that summarize the situation, focused on the study of Nadine and the cutoff (horizontal maps and vertical cross sections) and maybe a plot of the rainfall over France.
From Frédéric: (15/Mar)
For the ensemble I wonder if we will see the same bifurcation in the scenarios than in the hires. It seems that for this specific case the lower resolution run was better than the hires. We need to see the results of the ensembles with low res to see if it matches what the operational ensemble proposed at the time. (note: we will be running the ensemble at lower than operational resolution T319 compared to T639, for reasons of limitations in data storage)
For the ensemble I wonder if we will see the same bifurcation in the scenarios than in the hires. It seems that for this specific case the lower resolution run was better than the hires. We need to see the results of the ensembles with low res to see if it matches what the operational ensemble proposed at the time.
GC: Could use operational ensemble as well as uncertainty runs? Compare ensemble control with HRES?
Tubing is not compulsory if you have problems finding the code for that. If we do the same as last year this will be perfect. Maybe we can try just to add the PCA of the 500height in Metview as a bonus for this workshop. I'll ask a colleague about clustering in R. If it it easy to do we can add it as a bonus too.
GC: Ask Linus for PCA code
Check what file format R requires (probably netcdf)
Concerning the runs
1. T1279 + analyses : FC from 00Z 20/9/2012. 5 days.
GC: OK
2. Ensemble (size & res to be confirmed) : OK, we need also to check if the lower res ensemble proposes 2 distinct scenarios
GC: Could use ECMWF operational ensemble (T639)? Compare with uncertainty runs: (a) below is closest to operational but at lower res and without wave model
3. Sensitivity run with ensemble, varying SST? We can try, to see if it impacts the motion of Nadine. Surface fluxes may also have an influence on the motion of Nadine. Switching of deep convection ? Maybe too radical ? Is it possible to do a sensitivity to the resolution ? The interaction between Nadine and the cutoff seems to be impacted by the resolution.
GC: Linus suggested sensitivity to SST was important. However, I think to add this will result in too
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much data and be too many topics. Concentrate on resolution effects and changes in model/initial data uncertainty. This is still alot for participants to do.
4. Uncertainty runs: (a) EDA/SV/SPPT/SKEB; (b) EDA/SV; (c) SPPT/SKEB : Will we do class ensembles ?
GC: Agreed. Although no-one will run OpenIFS to produce a 'class ensemble', the exercises allow the participants to group perturbed members into different size ensembles to see what impact it has.
On the second day, François Bouttier can also speak about optimal tresholds to use in order to deal with extremes with convective scale ensembles.
GC: It would be good to add something on this into the exercises?
I agree with you concerning the need to do the SCM case study. I am waiting for your input and ideas as I don't really know what the model can do.
GC: I think a convection based exercise is best here.
Notes from Frédéric: (9/Feb)
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