...

PC running CentOS (based on redhat enterprise) - 64bit (confirmed)

Student accounts limited to 5GB (could be issue)

Language

Students have asked for more lessons in EnglishEnglish used predominantly.

English teachers will be there. Encourage students to write and speak in English as students have asked for more lessons in English.

? tutorials written Tutorial: write in English ? (maybe with perhaps some parts duplicated in French?)?

Topic

Storm Nadine. Case of extratropic transition interaction between Hurricane Nadine and cut-off low, ensemble uncertainty & severe weather over France.

...

Sensitivity - two main issues : Model resolution - to model interaction of the storm and cut-off low;  Convection processes.

Could focus on clustering of the ensemble ?  Different algorithms for clustering?

Tubing .v. clustering. see: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0434%281999%29014%3C0741%3ATAATCF%3E2.0.CO%3B2   Ask Linus about this.Linus says ensemble is sensitive to SST. This particular case was in fact used as part of the argument for coupling the ocean model (NEMO) from day 1 in the ensemble forecast rather than day 10 as used in 2012; days 1-9 used persisted SST anomalies.

TODO

•  Decide on forecasts for workshop: resolution, start date(s) and forecast length : all runs start 00UTC 20 Sept 2012
  
•  Extract HRES & analysis
•  Run ensemble forecasts
•  Book accommodation
•  Install SCM on OpenIFS VM
•  Get PCA code from Linus & try it
•  Frédéric to check last year's VM will run on classroom PCs and ensure VirtualBox (or VMware) is installed.
•  Check for observations we might have in the archive for HYMEX that could be used

Data

1. T1279 + analyses : OK

2. Ensemble (size & res to be confirmed) : OK, we need also to check if the lower res ensemble proposes 2 distinct scenarios

3. Sensitivity run with ensemble, varying SST?  We can try, to see if it impacts the motion of Nadine. Surface fluxes may also have an influence on the motion of Nadine. Switching of deep convection ? Maybe too radical ? Is it possible to do a sensitivity to the resolution ? The interaction between Nadine and the cutoff seems to be impacted by the resolution.

nb. limit of student accounts is 5Gb. Unless this can be changed we should aim for 4Gb total size of VM (this will limit no. of datasets, fields & levels)

Analyses:

T1279 20120918 00Z - 20120925 00Z

Fields / levels (TBD)

Ensemble:

Actual operational ensemble T639. 20120920 00Z - 20120925 00Z (all members)

Fields / levels (TBD)

Ensemble (with NEMO on day 1):

Current operational configuration: T639. 20120920 00Z - 20120925 00Z (all members) (Glenn to ask Frederic for the experiment)

Fields / levels (TBD)

Uncertainty runs:

Suggest we do not have time nor the space on the VM for these.

4. Uncertainty runs: (a) EDA/SV/SPPT/SKEB; (b) EDA/SV; (c) SPPT/SKEB : Will we do class ensembles ?

Data domain

Extract data similar to domain in figure 1 but suggest crop 50W - 20E / 30N - 65N (adjust to suitable aspect ratio)

Plots

If space is an issue, decide which plots are to be interactive and which are available as images only.

PCA in Metview - speak to Linus (he says he has some Fortran code). Or could use R

...