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In
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this case study
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In these the exercises for this interesting case study we will:
- study the development of Hurricane Nadine and the interaction with the Atlantic cut-off low using the ECMWF analyses.
- study the performance of the ECMWF high resolution (HRES) deterministic forecast of the time.
- use the operational ensemble forecast to look at the forecast spread and understand the uncertainty downstream of the interaction.
- compare a reforecast using the current (May/2016) ECMWF operational ensemble with the 2012 ensemble forecasts.
- use principal component analysis (PCA) with clustering techniques (see Pantillon et al) to characterize the behaviour of the ensembles.
- see how forecast products were used during the HyMEX field campaign.
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Pantillon, F., Chaboureau, J.-P. and Richard, E. (2015), 'Vortex-vortex interaction between Hurrican Hurricane Nadine and an Atlantic cutoff dropping the predictability over the Mediterranean, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2635/abstract |
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Please follow this link to see more details on changes to the ECMWF IFS forecast system (http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/documentation-and-support/changes-ecmwf-model)
Saving images and printing
To save images during these exercises for discussion later, you can either use:
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or use the following command to take a 'snapshot' of the screen:
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ksnapshot |
Virtual machine
If using the metviewOpenIFS/openifs Metview virtual machine with these exercises the recommended minimum memory is 4Gb. These exercises use a relatively large domain with high resolution data. Some of the plotting options can therefore require significant amounts of memory. If the virtual machine freezes when running metview, please try increasing the memory assigned to the VM.
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Please enter the folder 'openifs_2016' to begin working. |
Saving images and printing
To save images during these exercises for discussion later, you can either use:
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Exercise 1. The ECMWF analysis
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The red line indicating the cross-section location can be changed in this macro by defining the end points of the line as shown above. Remember that if the forecast time is changed, the storm centres will move and the cross-section line will need to be repositioned to follow specific features. This is not computed automatically, but must be changed by altering the coordinates above.
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This completes the first exercise. You have now learnt how to use the key macros, alter fields for plotting and animate fields. The next exercises use similar macros. |
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Exercise 2: The operational HRES forecast
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HRES data is provided at the same resolution as the operational model, in order to give the best representation of the Hurricane and cut-off low interations. This may mean that some plotting will be slow.
Questions
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Available plot types
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For this exercise, you will use the metview icons in the row labelled 'HRES forecast' as shown above. hres_rmse.mv : this plots the root-mean-square-error growth curves for the operational HRES forecast for the different lead times.
hres_to_an_diff.mv : this plots a single parameter as a difference between the operational HRES forecast and the ECMWF analysis. Use this to understand the forecast errors from the different lead times.
Parameters & map appearance. These macros have the same choice of parameters to plot and same choice of |
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