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  • MSLP + 10m winds :                                           interesting for Nadine's tracking and primary circulation
  • MSLP + relative humidity at 700hPa + vorticity at 850hPa  : low level signature of Nadine and disturbance associated with the cutoff low, with mid-level humidity of the systems.
  • Geopotential + temperature at 500hPa :            large scale patterns, mid-troposphere position of warm Nadine and the cold Atlantic cutoff
  • Geopotential + temperature at 850hPa :            lower level conditions, detection of fronts
  • 320K potential vorticity (PV) + MSLP,
  • 500hPa relative vorticity (see Fig. 14 in Pantillon) :     upper level conditions, upper level jet and the cutoff signature in PV, interaction between Nadine and the cut-off low.
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Potential temperature + potential vorticity,
Humidity + vertical motion :                                  to characterize the cold core and warm core structures of Hurricane Nadine and the cut-off low.
PV + vertical velocity (+ relative humidity) : a classical cross-section to see if a PV anomaly is accompanied with vertical motion or not.

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4 : 10meter winds + 6hourly RR + MSLP in background --> We should see an impact on the RR over France around t+108h (cf Pantillon fig 2)5 : 330K PV + 330K winds + MSLP in background (fig 13 in Pantillon) --> Interaction between Nadine and the through.

 

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 (tick)  This completes the second exercise.

You have seen how the ECMWF operational HRES forecast of 2012-09-20 00Z performed compared to the analysis. The next exercises look at the ECMWF ensemble.

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