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I'd rather not add another 3 days of data (26-28) to show a single forecast. If this is just a short example to the students during the workshop, can we plot these and include just the figures? (ie. not an interactive exercise)
*Horizontal maps* (analysis + forecast) :
All ok apart from:
3 : Equivalent potential temperature at 850 hPa + winds at 850 hPa +
vertical velocity at 600hPa + MSLP in background --> focussing on the
Can we use 700hPa VV instead of 600, to be consistent with data on other levels? We will need VV on multiple levels in order to plot the x-sections (see below), though these will only be available 00Z on each day. The horiz. maps will have VV available 6hrly but on selected levels only (we're proposing 200, 500, 700, 850).
*Vertical x-sections* in the cutoff and in the low :
**PV + winds (preferably normal winds) + if possible potential
temperature --> to look at the cold core or warm core structure of the
systems on the vertical and the signature in PV and winds.
PV + relative humidity + vertical velocity --> a more classical
x-section that we use to see if a PV anomaly is accompanied with
vertical motion or not.
For these x-sections we can choose 3 or 4 times that appear to be
interesting. Interactivity would be good, to make the students look a
little bit in the code.
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*Satellite* : we have the satellite images of the situation (IR, WV,
cloud classification, IR-Visible composite). We can send them to you to
put on the VM.
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Proposed tasks for Day 1 :
5 : Beyond D+5 deterministic scenario : MSLP only
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Concerning the ensemble runs, 6 hourly data is OK. If you have space on
the VM it would be interesting to go up to D+10 (or D+15). This would
allow to try and look at the extreme member over Gibraltar on the 28
September.
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Task 4 : PCA and clustering
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Q: How do you want to plot the ensemble data? Plot individual members, groups of members or x-section of the cluster of member
Proposed tasks for Day 1 :
5 : Beyond D+5 deterministic scenario : MSLP only
See above. I think this will be too much data for us to include beyond day 5.
Concerning the ensemble runs, 6 hourly data is OK. If you have space on
the VM it would be interesting to go up to D+10 (or D+15). This would
allow to try and look at the extreme member over Gibraltar on the 28
September.
Task 1 : forecast error
Task 2 : compare forecast to analysis
we think task 2 fits better on day 1 when the students visualize the analyses & HRES forecast. If time, they look at HRES forecast error though that could be day 2. Day 2 then becomes mostly about the ensemble.
Task 3 : visualize ensembles (plumes, ensemble spread, spaghetti, stamp,
CDO)
--> These 3 tasks from last year are very interesting. To gain time
maybe that we should put a group on each item for task 3 or suppress
task 2 ? The CDO adds a "statistical" taint to the workshop do you think
we can adapt it to our case ?
Maybe we can put the students into the role of the forecaster during HyMEX; given the CDF plots & clusters, what would the students have decided to do and why?
We did this last year asking the question what would the participants do if the Queen had a birthday garden party and the forecast showed a risk of severe weather It was a good discussion.
Perhaps this could be led by Etienne based on Hymex experience?
Task 4 : PCA and clustering
Thanks for this. It will also be interesting to see what the latest operational ensemble does with this case (we do not yet know!). Comparing the two will be interesting.
So day 2 « menu » would be : Looking at the ensemble products and the cluster products and making a decision for Hymex field campaign —> They will have Etienne's forecaster feedback the day after.
I’ll ask Etienne his ideas for the workshop tasks on this topic. Looking at the impact of ocean coupling on the ensemble prediction. Tell me if you manage to redo the clustering and the composites in Metview, I hope it will work. If you manage to redo figures 5 6 7 8 and 10 I think I’ll have to tell Jean-Pierre to focus more during his presentation on the vortex-vortex interaction and the CRM sensitivity experiments he made. This will leave the cluster analysis for the students to discover.
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