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titleIsobaric maps
  • MSLP + 10m winds :                                           interesting for Nadine's tracking and primary circulation
  • MSLP + relative humidity at 700hPa + vorticity at 850hPa  : low level signature of Nadine and disturbance associated with the cutoff low, with mid-level humidity of the systems.
  • Geopotential + temperature at 500hPa :            large scale patterns, mid-troposphere position of warm Nadine and the cold Atlantic cutoff
  • Geopotential + temperature at 850hPa :            lower level conditions, detection of fronts
  • 320K potential vorticity (PV) + MSLP,
  • 500hPa relative vorticity (see Fig. 14 in Pantillon) :     upper level conditions, upper level jet and the cutoff signature in PV, interaction between Nadine and the cut-off low.
  • Winds at 850hPa + vertical velocity at 700hPa (+MSLP) : focus on moist and warm air in the lower levels and associated vertical motion. Should not be a strong horizontal temperature gradient around Nadine, the winds should be stronger for Nadine than for the cutoff.
  • 10m winds + total precipitation (+MSLP) : compare with Pantillon Fig.2., impact on rainfall over France.
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titleVertical cross-sections
Potential temperature + potential vorticity,
Humidity + vertical motion :                                  to characterize the cold core and warm core structures of Hurricane Nadine and the cut-off low.
PV + vertical velocity (+ relative humidity) : a classical cross-section to see if a PV anomaly is accompanied with vertical motion or not.

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3 : winds at 850 hPa + vertical velocity at 600hPa + MSLP in background --> focussing on the moist and warm air in the lower levels and the vertival motion. There should not be a strong horizontal temperature gradient around Nadine, the winds should be stronger for Nadine than for the cutoff.

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 (tick)  This completes the second exercise.

You have seen how the ECMWF operational HRES forecast of 2012-09-20 00Z performed compared to the analysis. The next exercises look at the ECMWF ensemble.

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