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Use the large geographical area for this task. It is only possible to use the MSLP parameter for this task as it is the only one provided for the ensembleUse the MSLP and z500 fields (and any others you think are useful).
Task 4. Non-linear development
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- Choose an odd & even ensemble pair (use the stamp plots). Use the appropriate icon to compute the difference of the members from the ensemble control forecast.
- Study the development of these differences using the MSLP and wind fields. If the error growth is linear the differences will be the same but of opposite sign. Non-linearity will result in different patterns in the difference maps.
- Repeat looking at one of the other forecasts. How does it vary between the different forecasts?
If time:
- Plot PV at 330K320K. What are the differences between the forecast? Upper tropospheric differences played a role in the development of this shallow fast moving cycloneinteraction of Hurricane Nadine and the cut-off low.
Notes from Frederic: email 7/4/16
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