DescriptionThe ECMWF EPS represents uncertainty in the initial conditions by creating a set of 50 forecasts starting from slightly different states that are close, but not identical, to our best estimate of the initial state of the atmosphere (the control). Each forecast is based on a model which is close, but not identical, to our best estimate of the model equations, thus representing also the influence of model uncertainties on forecast error. Learning objectivesBy the end of the module, participants will have an understanding of the concepts behind ensemble forecasting, sources of uncertainty and their qualification. They will also be familiar with a number of products derived from the ensemble forecasting system Audience Forecasters, product developer, weather providers, scientists Link to moduleWhy ensemble forecasting? |