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A deep trough located over western Europe caused a strong south-westerly flow (and moisture flux) across North Africa and the Mediterranean Sea to affect southeast Europe. This flow hit the steep orography along the shores of the eastern Adriatic Sea causing large precipitation totals. From the analysis of the ECMWF forecast system, the precipitation appeared to be more convective in nature.
The plots below show the analyses of z500 and t850 before and during the event.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
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