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The plot below shows time-series of IFS control forecast from 5 June and the observations from Esperanza. We can see a significant cold error in the forecasts, but looking at the plots above we see that nearby gridpoints were warmer.
DestinE (IFS 4.4km resolution)
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The plots below show the Extreme Forecast Index for 3-day mean integrated water vapour flux valid 5-7 June.
Forecast Evolution plot
The evolution plot below shows the mean 3-day 2-metre temperature vaid 5-7 June for Esperanza for different ECMWF medium-range forecasts.
The plot below shows the same as above but for the sub-seasonal forecasts. The signal appeared around 19 May, that is more than two weeks before the event.
3.4 Sub-seasonal forecasts
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6.1 Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- Very early signal for the event (more than two weeks before)
- The short-range forecasts had a cold error, probably due to underestimating the Fohn effect and/or local variations in the temperature.
6.2 Experience from general performance/other cases
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