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Observations and analysis for the event
The plot below shows the IFS-control forecast from 23 June 00UTC with hourly output (red) and observation from stations around Angers (France). The IFS forecast underestimated the diurnal cycle of the 2-metre temperature.
Control forecast (IFS 9-km resolution)
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The plot below shows the evolution of 3-day mean temperature for Angers (0.5x0.5 degree box centred on 47.5N, 0.6W) in western France valid 23-25 June.
The plots below shows the same as above but for London-Heathrow. Here one can see how the forecasts got less extreme in the forecasts from 22 June (last day before the event). This might be related to the thunderstorms on 21-22 June, providing water to the soil.
Forecast Evolution plot
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