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Introduction
A forecast 'bust' is typically associated with a sudden and pronounced drop in forecast performance. The standard way of assessing the performance of a single forecast is to calculate how well the height of the 500-hPa pressure field (Z500) agrees with the observed outcome. The agreement is typically quantified by calculating the area-averaged root-mean-square error (RMSE) or the spatial anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC).
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Rodwell, M.J. and Coauthors, (2013). Characteristics of occasional poor medium-range weather forecasts for europe. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 94(9) 1393–1405. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00099.1 Rodwell, M. J., and Coauthors, 2012a: Characteristics of occasional poor medium-range forecasts for Europe. ECMWF Newsletter, No. 131, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom, 11–15. |
Case study aims
Possible approaches to studying this case are:
- Characteristics of forecast bust compared to analyses.
- Role of organised convection over the USA.
- Understanding Rossy wave development associated with the forecast bust.
- Use of ensembles.
- Sensitivity to parametrized physics processes, particularly vertical mixing.
Initial conditions
Case study initial conditions are provided on the OpenIFS ftp site. The ftp site is password protected, only licensed institutes may be provided with the ftp password. Please contact openifs-support@ecmwf.int.
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Acknowledgements
The figures on this page were prepared by Lauri Tuppi, University of Helsinki, who completed a project on this case study.
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