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This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the ASO 2026 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes 1 forecasts initialized between Thursday 13th August 2026 and Thursday 13th August 2026 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview.

Regional skill score files

All regional RPSSs are available to download via the following link:

ASO 2026 Regional RPSSs (Excel format)

Regional scores for the top 10 teams of global, period-aggregated, variable-averaged RPSSs

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title	Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)

Team name	Team rank	Model name	Model rank	Global	Tropics	NHem. ExTro.	SHem. ExTro.	NHem. Polar	SHem. Polar	Europe	N. Amer.	S. Amer.	Africa	Asia	Oceania
Arcana	1	ArcanaSphericalBeta	1	0.236	0.421	0.042	0.051	0.139	-0.043	0.164	0.096	0.37	0.37	0.115	0.436
Arcana	1	ArcanaSpherical	2	0.235	0.427	0.044	-0.008	0.119	-0.015	0.14	0.077	0.344	0.378	0.132	0.409
Arcana	1	ArcanaSphericalv2	17	0.188	0.351	0.022	0.023	0.08	-0.023	0.123	0.059	0.24	0.287	0.074	0.368
CMAandFDU	2	FengshunAdjust	3	0.234	0.429	0.034	0.023	0.088	0.005	0.116	0.089	0.372	0.386	0.104	0.414
CMAandFDU	2	FengshunHybrid	4	0.231	0.432	0.024	0.022	0.086	-0.014	0.121	0.07	0.398	0.366	0.104	0.433
CMAandFDU	2	Fengshun	8	0.209	0.408	0.005	-0.034	0.067	-0.026	0.092	0.074	0.361	0.352	0.081	0.35
LP	3	LPM	5	0.226	0.441	0.019	0.003	0.055	-0.075	0.162	0.018	0.455	0.307	0.154	0.414
VD	4	SPQR	6	0.223	0.416	0.037	0.032	0.084	-0.038	0.129	0.063	0.423	0.297	0.148	0.399
VD	4	SPQRnow	7	0.222	0.414	0.045	0.027	0.085	-0.047	0.136	0.071	0.423	0.303	0.144	0.393
MetaCarbon3060	5	PuyunEnsemble	9	0.208	0.411	0.014	-0.015	0.041	-0.079	0.131	0.015	0.44	0.271	0.144	0.359
MetaCarbon3060	5	PuyunWeather	11	0.207	0.403	0.024	-0.005	0.07	-0.096	0.158	0.017	0.431	0.271	0.141	0.373
MetaCarbon3060	5	PuyunLDM	12	0.205	0.403	0.015	-0.013	0.04	-0.073	0.128	0.025	0.423	0.266	0.136	0.361
CLINT	6	CLINTDD	10	0.207	0.416	0.014	-0.069	0.038	-0.092	0.169	-0.001	0.397	0.302	0.142	0.375
CLINT	6	CLINTMF	13	0.201	0.412	0.007	-0.084	0.029	-0.1	0.163	-0.014	0.403	0.294	0.143	0.35
CLINT	6	CLINTSE	16	0.189	0.421	-0.008	-0.133	0.008	-0.176	0.163	-0.064	0.413	0.316	0.132	0.344
AIFS	7	AIFSthalassa	14	0.19	0.403	-0.041	0.09	-0.002	-0.082	0.022	-0.044	0.409	0.308	0.078	0.448
AIFS	7	AIFSgaia	15	0.19	0.363	-0.034	0.121	0.019	0.029	0.057	-0.001	0.409	0.28	0.037	0.374
AIFS	7	AIFShera	23	0.173	0.38	-0.067	0.054	0.004	-0.058	0.002	-0.111	0.396	0.321	0.053	0.403
SBUHybrid	8	HybridStillDeveloping	18	0.186	0.36	0.036	0.003	-0.02	-0.054	0.073	0.062	0.319	0.266	0.095	0.405
SBUHybrid	8	HybridPPx	25	0.158	0.319	0.019	-0.009	-0.021	-0.075	0.04	0.034	0.283	0.214	0.065	0.342
SBUHybrid	8	HybridAC	26	0.149	0.306	0.024	-0.042	-0.019	-0.074	0.061	0.031	0.279	0.256	0.033	0.315
Fahamu	9	fp16FahamuAIFSv2	19	0.186	0.356	0.015	0.064	0.082	-0.039	0.104	0.07	0.38	0.211	0.09	0.386
NMCBridge	10	multical	20	0.18	0.391	-0.024	-0.019	-0.012	-0.103	0.098	-0.04	0.394	0.266	0.091	0.423
NMCBridge	10	QuintCal	21	0.18	0.377	0.001	-0.01	-0.019	-0.1	0.1	-0.021	0.38	0.252	0.122	0.348
NMCBridge	10	shrinkcal	22	0.179	0.375	0.001	-0.01	-0.019	-0.099	0.101	-0.021	0.377	0.251	0.122	0.348

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title	Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)

Team name	Team rank	Model name	Model rank	Global	Tropics	NHem. ExTro.	SHem. ExTro.	NHem. Polar	SHem. Polar	Europe	N. Amer.	S. Amer.	Africa	Asia	Oceania
VD	1	SPQRnow	1	0.227	0.367	0.096	0.13	0.051	0.12	0.088	0.204	0.317	0.308	0.179	0.253
VD	1	SPQR	2	0.222	0.363	0.089	0.13	0.039	0.115	0.075	0.197	0.32	0.3	0.171	0.255
Arcana	2	ArcanaSphericalv2	3	0.219	0.367	0.061	0.088	0.013	0.137	0.043	0.228	0.24	0.353	0.119	0.289
Arcana	2	ArcanaSpherical	6	0.204	0.35	0.083	0.03	0.03	0.105	0.048	0.231	0.236	0.365	0.123	0.257
Arcana	2	ArcanaSphericalBeta	11	0.196	0.347	0.052	0.059	-0.012	0.126	0.02	0.203	0.252	0.342	0.094	0.254
LP	3	LPM	4	0.216	0.366	0.082	0.116	0.008	0.112	0.033	0.204	0.336	0.315	0.139	0.269
Fahamu	4	fp16FahamuAIFSv2	5	0.214	0.359	0.127	0.058	-0.099	0.1	0.051	0.244	0.283	0.268	0.168	0.313
MetaCarbon3060	5	PuyunWeather	7	0.201	0.34	0.089	0.109	-0.018	0.103	0.056	0.203	0.297	0.267	0.148	0.248
MetaCarbon3060	5	PuyunEnsemble	8	0.201	0.337	0.07	0.134	0.006	0.092	0.047	0.202	0.309	0.279	0.134	0.238
MetaCarbon3060	5	PuyunLDM	12	0.194	0.325	0.069	0.11	0.008	0.085	0.048	0.19	0.275	0.272	0.139	0.242
CLINT	6	CLINTDD	9	0.198	0.331	0.079	0.086	0.029	0.109	0.068	0.196	0.311	0.285	0.144	0.222
CLINT	6	CLINTMF	10	0.198	0.331	0.076	0.098	0.024	0.109	0.061	0.205	0.31	0.287	0.133	0.221
CLINT	6	CLINTSE	22	0.174	0.307	0.057	0.061	-0.011	0.117	0.051	0.16	0.286	0.273	0.124	0.185
CMAandFDU	7	FengshunHybrid	13	0.19	0.339	0.037	0.08	0.049	0.062	0.033	0.175	0.197	0.345	0.114	0.275
CMAandFDU	7	FengshunAdjust	15	0.181	0.323	0.038	0.064	0.044	0.06	0.026	0.166	0.162	0.33	0.109	0.274
CMAandFDU	7	Fengshun	24	0.163	0.299	0.009	0.08	0.04	0.056	0.035	0.13	0.19	0.313	0.093	0.17
AIFS	8	AIFShera	14	0.188	0.346	-0.001	0.094	0.025	0.086	0.015	0.118	0.238	0.344	0.103	0.265
AIFS	8	AIFSthalassa	16	0.18	0.329	0.016	0.053	0.0	0.087	-0.009	0.104	0.216	0.296	0.135	0.266
AIFS	8	AIFSgaia	20	0.176	0.305	-0.007	0.047	0.062	0.15	0.03	0.09	0.236	0.3	0.094	0.188
NMCBridge	9	QuintCal	17	0.177	0.307	0.052	0.095	0.005	0.061	0.051	0.15	0.24	0.282	0.136	0.218
NMCBridge	9	shrinkcal	19	0.176	0.306	0.052	0.095	0.006	0.061	0.052	0.149	0.233	0.279	0.137	0.219
NMCBridge	9	multical	21	0.175	0.306	0.062	0.08	0.037	0.016	0.054	0.146	0.219	0.274	0.142	0.243
SBUHybrid	10	HybridStillDeveloping	18	0.176	0.298	0.055	0.035	0.019	0.089	0.008	0.113	0.146	0.284	0.137	0.248
SBUHybrid	10	HybridPPx	23	0.166	0.288	0.035	0.037	0.006	0.076	-0.017	0.119	0.132	0.331	0.104	0.174
SBUHybrid	10	HybridAC	25	0.157	0.275	0.025	0.032	0.01	0.084	-0.038	0.133	0.117	0.335	0.049	0.151

Figures showing aggregated RPSSs for best-performing model from top 10 teams

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title	Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)

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title	Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)

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title	Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)

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title	Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)

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title	Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)

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title	Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)

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Figures showing evolution of skill scores

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title	Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)

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title	Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)

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title	Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)

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title	Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)

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title	Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)

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title	Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)

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title	Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)

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title	Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)

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title	Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)

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title	Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)

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title	Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)

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title	Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)

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title	Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)

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title	Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)

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title	Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)

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title	Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)

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Figures showing percentage of grid points with positive period-aggregated RPSSs

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title	Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)

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title	Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)

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title	Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)

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title	Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)

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title	Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)

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title	Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)

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Figures showing observed conditions with respect to defined ERA5 climatology

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title	Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)

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title	Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)

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title	Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)

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title	Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)

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title	Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)

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title	Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)

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Regional skill score files

Regional scores for the top 10 teams of global, period-aggregated, variable-averaged RPSSs

Figures showing aggregated RPSSs for best-performing model from top 10 teams

Figures showing evolution of skill scores

Figures showing percentage of grid points with positive period-aggregated RPSSs

Figures showing observed conditions with respect to defined ERA5 climatology