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Observations and analysis for the event
In the analysis and IFS control forecasts one can large variability in the temperature on the eastern side of the peninsula, probably due to the Fohn effect. The point picked up for Esperanza is not particularly warm.
Control forecast (IFS 9-km resolution)
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EFI (based on IFS 9-km ensemble)
The plots below show the Extreme Forecast Index for 3-day mean temperature valid 5-7 June. There was an early signal for this large-scale warm event.
The plots below show the Extreme Forecast Index for 3-day mean integrated water vapour flux valid 5-7 June. Also the moisture flux anomaly was well predicted and contributed to the Fohn effect.
Forecast Evolution plot
The evolution plot below shows the mean 3-day 2-metre temperature vaid valid 5-7 June for Esperanza for different ECMWF medium-range forecasts. Already 15-day forecasts indicated a strong warm anomaly, but one have to be careful with the interpretation of the model climatology here.
The plot below shows the same as above but for the sub-seasonal forecasts. The signal appeared around 19 May, that is more than two weeks before the event.
3.4 Sub-seasonal forecasts
The figures below show verification plots of 2-metre temperature anomalies for the week 1-7 June. Also here the very early signal for the warm event can been seen.
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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