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Other relevant information:
POAMA24 uses 3 model versions (24a, 24b, 24c). There are 11 ensemble members for each version. There are only 11 initial conditions, so the same initial conditions get used by each model version. So, there are 3 control members (1 from each model) and 10 perturbed members from each model version.
The numbering is:
e00 is control for P24a and e01-e10 are perturbed members for P24a
e11 is control for P24b and e12-21 are perturbed members for P24b
e22 is control for P24c and e23-32 are perturbed members for P24c.
The lead-time dependent climatologies for each model are different, so the 3 versions need to be treated separately to form anomalies before forming grand ensemble mean (and/or spread).
8. References:
Comprehensive description of the model physics:
Cottrill, A., H. H. Hendon, E.-P. Lim, S. Langford, K. Shelton, A. Charles, D. McClymont, D. Jones, and Y. Kuleshov, 2013: Seasonal Forecasting in the Pacific using the coupled model POAMA-2.Weather and Forecasting. doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-12-00072.1
Description of the extended range forecasts/ensemble perturbations:
Hudson, D., A. Marshall, Y. Yin, O. Alves, and H. Hendon, 2013: Improving intraseasonal prediction with a new ensemble generation strategy. Monthly Weather Review, 141, 4429-4449, DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-13-00059.1
Description of Ocean Reanalyses/Assimilation:
Yin, Y., O. Alves, and P. R. Oke, 2011: An ensemble ocean data assimilation system for seasonal prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 786-808.
Description of Atmosphere/Land Initialization:
Hudson, D., Alves, O., Hendon, H.H. and Wang, G., 2011: The impact of atmospheric initialisation on seasonal prediction of tropical Pacific SST. Climate Dynamics. 36:1155-1171
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