Page History

Creation of S-M-Climate

The S-M-Climate is derived from a set of seasonal re-forecasts are created using using the same calendar start dates for each of the last 20 years for the same data time of the seasonal run itself.  The re-forecast runs are at the same resolution as the seasonal run itself (currently 36km) and run over the 7 month or 13 month period of a seasonal forecast 

There is merit in examining the real-time performance of a forecasting system.   But the sample sizes created for one system are far too small to conclude anything about its true performance levels.  Re-forecasts are used to increase the available data to produce a model climate.   The results of forecast system may be compared with this model climate.

Re-forecasts are a fundamental component of all seasonal forecasting system; they have two applications:

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• seasonal forecast verification metrics are based on the re-forecasts.
  

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• re-forecasts allow

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• computation of the S-M-climate

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• which

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• allows actual forecasts to be converted into an anomaly format.

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•   Forecasts in terms of anomalies relative to a model climate (rather than relative to the observed climatology) means that

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• some calibration for model bias and drift into the products is incorporated.

Seasonal Re-Forecasts for Verification

These are used entirely for skill and reliability assessment, and verification maps are accordingly provided on the web. 

Seasonal re-forecasts for verification - longer set of re-forecasts

The set of re-forecasts is based on using the To evaluate our seasonal forecast system, a re-forecast set has been used.  It has been created using the same calendar start date (the 1st of each month) during a fixed period (36 yearsas the seasonal run in question.  Re-forecasts are created using the same calendar start dates during the 36 year period: Jan 1981 to Dec 2016).   Currently Currently, this is not updated.  It consists of a

The set of re-forecasts is made up from:

• a set of re-forecasts using the same calendar start dates for each of the 36 year period: Jan 1981 to Dec 2016. 
• each re-forecast is from an 25-member ensemble (all perturbed members

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• ) run over a 7-month forecast period for monthly runs, and a 13-month forecast period for quarterly runs.

In total, each set of re-forecasts consists of 36 years x 1 runs x 25 ensemble   Therefore altogether 36 years x 25 ENS members = 900 re-forecast values.  These are available for each forecast parameter, forecast lead-time, calendar start date (the 1st of each month) and location.  These are used in their entirety for skill and reliability assessment, and verification maps are accordingly provided on the web.

Whilst there is of course some merit in examining the real-time performance of a seasonal forecasting system, the sample sizes created for one system are far too small to conclude anything about the true performance levels of that system. Hence we use the re-forecasts.

The S-M-climate

month, location, at forecast intervals of 6 hours.  

These are used entirely for verification and assessment of skill.

Seasonal re-forecasts to construct the seasonal climate (S-M-climate) - shorter set of re-forecasts

The set of re-forecasts is based on using the same calendar start date (the 1st of each month) as the seasonal run in question.  Re-forecasts are created using the same calendar start dates during the 24 year period: Jan 1993 to Dec 2016.  Currently, this is not updated. 

The set of re-forecasts is made up from:

• a set of re-forecasts using the same calendar start dates for each of the 24 year period: Jan 1981 to Dec 2016. 
• each re-forecast is from an 25-member ensemble (all perturbed members) run over a 7-month forecast period for monthly runs, and a 13-month forecast period for quarterly runs.

In total, each set of re-forecasts consists of 24 years x 1 runs x 25 ensemble For actual forecast products, where one uses the re-forecasts to try to cancel out drift etc., the re-forecast period utilised is a subset of that used for verification. Currently it is the 24 year period Jan 1993-Dec 2016.  Therefore altogether 24 years x 25 ENS members = 600 re-forecast values.  These are available . This defines the S-M-climate for each forecast parameter, forecast lead-time,  calendar start date (1st of each month) and location.  This is shorter than the full period available from the re-forecasts, and closer overall to the current date, for two reasons: (i) month, location, at forecast intervals of 6 hours.

These are used to define the S-M-climate.

The smaller number of re-forecasts compared with for M-climate or ER-M-climate, and overall all the re-forecasts being on the current date, is justified:

• to be compatible with other seasonal forecast products provided through the auspices of Copernicus (this is their standard re-forecast period)

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• to be more compatible with "current climate" (which is changing primarily due to global warming).

The S-M-climate is used in association with the seasonal ensemble forecast:

• to highlight significant monthly anomalies of forecast parameters (2m temperature, 500 hPa height, 850 hPa temperature, mean sea level pressure, precipitation) from the norm for a given location and time of year.