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  • can influence the development of synoptic-scale systems (e.g. tropical cyclones)
  • influences meteorological evolution and predictability in the extra-tropics
  • helps capture the propagation of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events, notably in the equatorial Indian Ocean and western Pacific ocean. 

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The re-forecasts are created twice a week (Mondays and Thursdays) and are ready a week before the real-time forecasting suite starts.  Real-time forecasts are calibrated using all the re-forecasts available in a one week window centred on the forecast start day and month. 



Fig5.2.-1: Example of plumes for Dublin.  Extended Range forecast, DT00UTC 1 January 2018.  The plumes show increasing spread of forecasted values of 850hPa temperatures and 500hPa geopotential height within the extended range period.

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