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Uncertainties within the IFS ensemble system are currently represented by a stochastic perturbation technique (SPPT).  This represents uncertainties due to the model integration, and is used during:

  • during the execution of the forecast.
  • during creation of the Ensemble of Data Assimilations (EDA) as part of the representation of uncertainties in the forecast initial conditions.

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SPPT randomly perturbs the tendencies from the physical parameterisation schemes.  This is done to represent uncertainties in the effects of under-resolved processes that the atmospheric physics parameterisation schemes aim to describe.  These uncertainties arise from either or both:

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