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Throughout the forecast period the changing extent of sea-ice and the variation of the ice shelf with time have important effects upon the energy and moisture balance at the atmosphere/surface boundary. The ice extent will change through the forecast period in response to sea temperatures and air temperatures, ocean currents and wind.  Melt ponds existing or forming on otherwise extensive sea ice can reduce albedo locally.

The impacts The impacts of differently-evolving SST and ice cover distributions should be considered when comparing different forecasts, even when they are from the same data time.  Ice cover can be extensive in fjords and inlets but may be too small to be shown on ice charts.  The local ice cover may influence forecast parameters nearby (e.g. 2m temperature, fog, etc.).  The Baltic Sea and Bay of Bothnia can be particularly affected.

The impact of waves on the sea ice is not yet at completely represented in ECMWF models.  There is particular uncertainty when the wave height at the sea ice edge is intense.

Sea ice cover

Sea ice cover evolves according to the sea ice model LIM2.  But in general the LIM2 sea ice model tends:

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Incorrect ice analysis and/or forecast near coasts can give anomalous T2m temperatures at nearby land locations.  Too much ice tends to make land temperatures too cold, too little tends to keep land temperatures nearer sea temperatures.

Fig2.1.4.8-1:Broadscale bias  General bias of ice thickness from LIM2.  The scale is in m.  Red too thick, blue too thin.  The averages hide a lot of features and the bias in ice thickness in LIM2 is not uniform.

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The extent of ice cover is shown with different thresholds on opencharts Opencharts and ecCharts..

Ice cover on

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Opencharts

Fig2.1.4.8-2: Example of sea temperatures and sea ice fraction opencchartsshown by Opencharts.  Sea ice fraction (cyan hues, %) is shown where ice coverage is greater than 50% but but most of the marginal ice zone (15%-50%) is not plotted.  This gives the impression that there is no sea ice outside this area.  However, patchy ice and bergs are likely in the surrounding waters.Ice in smaller discontinuous patches or as bergs can occur elsewhere mainly in purple coloured areas but particularly where sea temperatures are sub-zero.  Current sea temperatures and ice cover chart on Opencharts.

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Fig2.1.4.8-3: Example of sea temperature anomaly opencchartOpenchart.  Temperature anomalies are shown only where the current sea ice fraction is <50%.  Sea ice fraction (cyan hues, %) is shown where ice coverage is greater than 50% but most of the marginal ice zone (15%-50%) is not plotted.  In areas of large sea ice depletion relative to climatology (i.e. inside the magenta contour), the sea surface temperature anomaly may be unreliable (or zero (white)) due to a lack of past sea surface temperature data.  Current sea temperatures anomaly on Opencharts.

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Fig2.1.4.8-4: Example of ecChart display of sea ice cover as fraction of a grid box. - only one range of coverage (0.2 to 1.0 fraction of grid box).  The extent of ice is larger than opencharts Opencharts (which only shows ice cover to 50%) and includes broken ice cover but without any detail.

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