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An illustration of the effect of resolution upon forecast rainfall distribution and intensity. 

Fig2112.AFig2.1.1.2-1: Rainfall forecasts run for the same period (24hr rainfall to T+69 verifying at 06UTC 6 Dec 2015) at several resolutions.    Resolutions: 80km , 36 km (used by the extended range and seasonal (SEAS5) ensembles), 18km, 9km (used by medium range ensemble), 5km (a possible future resolution).

Fig2112.BFig2.1.1.2-2: Magnification of rainfall forecasts as in Fig2112.AFig2.1.1.2-1. The bottom right plot shows the observed rainfall for comparison.  Higher resolution gives better representation of the rain shadow effect but it still is underestimated (e.g. northeast Northeast England).

Fig2112.A and Fig2112.B Fig2.1.1.2-1 and Fig2.1.1.2-2 illustrate the impact of resolution on rainfall, particularly orographic enhancement and the rain shadow effect.  The effect of increased model resolution on:

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