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19/July/2024

C3S graphical and data products from July 2024 forecast

The issue reported on 10 July 2024 (below), related to errors in the July-start forecast data from ECCC's new operation system, CanSIPSv3.0, has now been resolved. Corrected data has been acquired, processed and archived, and ECCC graphical and data products have been published. Data with July starts from ECCC's systems 4 and 5 (in the CDS notation) can now be downloaded from the CDS. Any data from these systems  downloaded from ECMWF's MARS archive before 19 July 2024 may be flawed; data downloaded after this date is expected to be error-free.

Unfortunately, hindcast data with August start from these new systems have not yet been made available (in line with the usual practice of publishing hindcasts at least one month before the corresponding real-time forecasts). This data will be processed and published, at the latest at the same time as the August 2024 forecast. The advance publication of hindcast data will be resumed as soon as possible.

17/July/2024

C3S graphical and data products from July 2024 forecast

The corrected DWD July-initialised real-time forecast has now been published, both in the set of graphical products on the website (https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/c3s_seasonal/) and in the respective datasets of the CDS. Data downloaded from the CDS after 16 July 2024 13 UTC  is expected to be error-free. The original error only affected one member of the real-time DWD forecast ensemble; however, all ensemble members have now be re-archived. 

10/July/2024

C3S graphical and data products from July 2024 forecast

Due to potential data quality issues, the suite of graphical seasonal forecast products with July 2024 initial conditions (available at https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/c3s_seasonal/) do not include the contribution from DWD, at the time of publication. (They also do not include ECCC forecasts - see announcement below.) The DWD July real-time forecast data has been processed and archived, and it is downloadable from the CDS forms and API, but we do not endorse its use until further investigation is completed. Initial examination points to the 22nd member of the ensemble (in the order archived) having been started from wrong initial conditions; at present, there is no guarantee that the other members are 'correct'.

10/July/2024

Update on changes to ECCC operational forecasting systems:

Due to issues with the acquisition of data from the new Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) seasonal forecasting systems, the ECCC July 2024 forecast will not be available, at the usual publication time, as data or graphical products. Neither forecast nor hindcast data are available via the CDS forms of the CDS API; however hindcast and real-time forecast data have been archived in MARS, but should not be used until further notice, pending tests to ensure data quality and consistency. ECCC is not part of the multi-system combination this month. 

Products from ECCC's July 2024 forecast may be created and published by C3S at a later date, but the real-time multi-system combination will not be updated.

 A reminder that the previous ECCC systems (CanCM4i and GEM5-NEMO) have been discontinued.

28/June/2024

Planned changes to operational forecasting systems:

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) will update its seasonal forecasting systems to new versions from July 2024. The new Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System version 3.0 (CanSIPSv3.0) is a multi-model ensemble composed of two individual forecast systems CanESM5 and GEM5.2-NEMO. ECCC's operational forecast system is one of the components of the C3S seasonal forecast multi-system. 

  • With the introduction of the new systems, both contributions (to C3S) from the current ECCC CanSIPSv2.1 system (CanCM4i and GEM5-NEMO) will be discontinued
  • Data availability
    • Real-time forecast data for July 2024 will be published on 10 July at 12UTC.
    • We are currently working on a tight schedule to process at C3S the July hindcast data for these new systems. Unfortunately, this means that for the next few months hindcast data will be made available much closer than usual to the release of the corresponding real-time forecast. Updated information on hindcast data availability will follow in the coming days.

22/March/2024

An issue potentially affecting C3S seasonal forecast data downloads from the CDS has been recently detected.

The source of the issue has been identified and the problem reverted, so CDS is now back to its correct behaviour. However, we strongly advise users which have requested data that matches the description below to repeat those downloads to ensure the data retrieved is correct.

The affected data downloads would have been those requesting data in netCDF format from one of the following seasonal forecast datasets (where the data is stored in GRIB) between Tuesday 19th of March and Thursday 21st of March (both included):

  • Seasonal forecast daily and subdaily data on single levels
  • Seasonal forecast subdaily data on pressure levels
  • Seasonal forecast monthly statistics on single levels
  • Seasonal forecast monthly statistics on pressure levels
  • Seasonal forecast anomalies on single levels
  • Seasonal forecast anomalies on pressure levels

CDS data requests matching that description have very likely received wrong data inside the netCDF files.

More details can be found in the complete issue description on the C3S User Forum: https://forum.ecmwf.int/t/check-your-recent-netcdf-files-downloaded-from-the-cds-and-ads-you-may-need-to-download-them-again/2280

11/December/2023

With the release of December 2023 forecasts (10th December 2023) a new view of the SST indices time series have been included for the ENSO regions in the C3S seasonal graphical products (https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/c3s_seasonal)

In addition to the plot showing individual ensemble members a new time series plot is now available showing some of the percentiles for each month's distribution. This was already available for the IOD indices and it has been now also extended to ENSO indices.

image-2023-12-11_14-4-29.pngImage Added

22/November/2023

Please note that a "data gap" issue has been documented in our C3S Seasonal Forecast known issues page affecting availability of MetOffice system 602 hindcast data for December nominal start dates (see details for issue G10. in the "Data gaps" table)

10/November/2023

Please note that a "data gap" issue has been documented in our C3S Seasonal Forecast known issues page affecting availability of MetOffice system 602 hindcast data for November nominal start dates (see details for issue G10. in the "Data gaps" table)

8/September/2023

Please note that a "data gap" issue has been documented in our C3S Seasonal Forecast known issues page affecting availability of MetOffice system 602 data for 8/August/2023 (see details for issue G10. in the "Data gaps" table)

9/August/2023

Please note that a "data gap" issue has been documented in our C3S Seasonal Forecast known issues page affecting availability of MetOffice system 602 data for 15/July/2023 (see details for issue G9. in the "Data gaps" table)

20/July/2023

New C3S seasonal forecast products available: 10m wind speed and sea ice concentration plots; additional documentation and training materials

Soon after the release of our July 2023 seasonal forecasts new features have been made available to users of the C3S seasonal forecast service:

9/June/2023

New C3S seasonal forecast products available: total column water quantities data and SST indices verification plots

...

  • New variables for water quantities integrated over the whole atmospheric column (water vapour, cloud liquid water and cloud ice water) are available. The initial contributions released on Initially, in June 2023 with , these data variables come are available from ECMWF SEAS5, CMCC SPS3.5 and DWD GCFS2.1.
  • New verification plots have been added to our C3S seasonal forecasts verification plots page, including correlation for SST-based indices (NINO regions and Indian Ocean Dipole)

...