19/July/2024
C3S graphical and data products from July 2024 forecast
The issue reported on 10 July 2024 (below), related to errors in the July-start forecast data from ECCC's new operation system, CanSIPSv3.0, has now been resolved. Corrected data has been acquired, processed and archived, and ECCC graphical and data products have been published. Data with July starts from ECCC's systems 4 and 5 (in the CDS notation) can now be downloaded from the CDS. Any data from these systems downloaded from ECMWF's MARS archive before 19 July 2024 may be flawed; data downloaded after this date is expected to be error-free.
Unfortunately, hindcast data with August start from these new systems have not yet been made available (in line with the usual practice of publishing hindcasts at least one month before the corresponding real-time forecasts). This data will be processed and published, at the latest at the same time as the August 2024 forecast. The advance publication of hindcast data will be resumed as soon as possible.
17/July/2024
C3S graphical and data products from July 2024 forecast
The corrected DWD July-initialised real-time forecast has now been published, both in the set of graphical products on the website (https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/c3s_seasonal/) and in the respective datasets of the CDS. Data downloaded from the CDS after 16 July 2024 13 UTC is expected to be error-free. The original error only affected one member of the real-time DWD forecast ensemble; however, all ensemble members have now be re-archived.
10/July/2024
C3S graphical and data products from July 2024 forecast
Due to potential data quality issues, the suite of graphical seasonal forecast products with July 2024 initial conditions (available at https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/c3s_seasonal/) do not include the contribution from DWD, at the time of publication. (They also do not include ECCC forecasts - see announcement below.) The DWD July real-time forecast data has been processed and archived, and it is downloadable from the CDS forms and API, but we do not endorse its use until further investigation is completed. Initial examination points to the 22nd member of the ensemble (in the order archived) having been started from wrong initial conditions; at present, there is no guarantee that the other members are 'correct'.
10/July/2024
Update on changes to ECCC operational forecasting systems:
Due to issues with the acquisition of data from the new Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) seasonal forecasting systems, the ECCC July 2024 forecast will not be available, at the usual publication time, as data or graphical products. Neither forecast nor hindcast data are available via the CDS forms of the CDS API; however hindcast and real-time forecast data have been archived in MARS, but should not be used until further notice, pending tests to ensure data quality and consistency. ECCC is not part of the multi-system combination this month.
Products from ECCC's July 2024 forecast may be created and published by C3S at a later date, but the real-time multi-system combination will not be updated.
A reminder that the previous ECCC systems (CanCM4i and GEM5-NEMO) have been discontinued.
28/June/2024
Planned changes to operational forecasting systems:
Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC)
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will update its seasonal forecasting systems to new versions from July 2024
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. The new Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System version 3.0 (CanSIPSv3.0) is a multi-model ensemble composed of two
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individual forecast systems CanESM5 and GEM5.2-NEMO. ECCC's operational forecast system is one of the components of the C3S seasonal forecast multi-system.
- With the introduction of the new systems, both contributions (to C3S) from the current ECCC CanSIPSv2.1 system (CanCM4i and GEM5-NEMO) will be discontinued
- Data availability
- Real-time forecast data for July 2024 will be published on
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- 10 July at
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- 12UTC.
- We are currently working on a tight schedule to process at C3S the July hindcast data for these new systems. Unfortunately, this means that for the next few months hindcast data will be made available
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- much
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- closer than usual
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- to the release of the corresponding real-time forecast
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- . Updated information on hindcast data availability will follow in the coming days
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- .
22/March/2024
An issue potentially affecting C3S seasonal forecast data downloads from the CDS has been recently detected.
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