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- fixed hindcasts. Some systems are designed so their expected lifetime will be around 4-5 years. Once the system has been designed and tested, ensemble hindcasts for the whole reference period are run. The advantage is that this reference dataset is available well in advance of real-time forecasts being issued, and its properties (biases, skill) can be quantified once for repeated use. As this is a very expensive exercise, it cannot be repeated too often and thus the system remains fixed for a long period of time.
- on-the-fly hindcasts. Some systems prioritise more frequent upgrades, which means that the hindcast sets have to be run more frequently. To achieve this in practice, the full hindcast set is run every time a new real-time forecast is produced, slightly in advance (a few weeks) of the real-time forecast and using exactly the same version of the forecasting system. This also offers the advantage of balancing the requirement for computing resources, but the compromise is the regular change of the model climatology.
Production schedules for the seasonal forecasting systems contributing to C3S
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The following summarises the information about the ensemble sizes, start dates and production schedule for the seasonal forecasting systems contributing to C3S.
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