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Seasonal forecasts and the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)
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The C3S seasonal forecast products are based on data from several state-of-the-art seasonal prediction systems. Multi-system combinations, as well as predictions from the individual participating systems, are available. The centres currently providing forecasts to C3S are: ECMWF, The Met Office and Météo-France; in the coming months data produced by , Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and , Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) will be included in the C3S multi-system), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), and you can find the details about when each system was introduced in the information contained in the Summary of available data.
Each model simulates the Earth system processes that influence weather patterns in slightly different ways, makes slightly different approximations, leading to different kinds of model error. These errors typically increase with the increase of integration time, so that the accumulated model errors become significant in comparison to the signal that the model is meant to predict. Some such errors are shared by the different models but others are not, so combining the output from a number of models enables a more realistic representation of the uncertainties due to model error. In most cases, such combined forecasts are, on average, more skilful than forecasts from the best of the individual models.
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| SYSTEM | FORECASTS | HINDCASTS | |||
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| ENSEMBLE SIZE and START DATES | PRODUCTION | ENSEMBLE SIZE and START DATES | PRODUCTION | ||
| ECMWF | System 4 (CDS system: 4) | 51 members start on the 1st | real-time | 15 members start on the 1st | fixed dataset |
SEAS5 | 51 members start on the 1st | real-time | 25 members start on the 1st | fixed dataset | |
| Météo-France | System 5 | 51 members (a) 26 start on the first Wednesday after the 19th | real-time | 15 members start on the first Wednesday after the 19th (a) | fixed dataset |
| System 6 (CDS system: 6) | 51 members 1 starts on the 1st | real-time | 25 members 1 starts on the 1st | fixed dataset | |
System 7 | 51 members 1 starts on the 1st | real-time | 25 members 1 starts on the 1st | fixed dataset | |
| Met Office | GloSea5 (b) (CDS system: 12,13, 14, 15 (d)) | 2 members start each day (c) | real-time | 7 members on the 1st | on-the-fly produced around 4-6 weeks in advance |
| CMCC | SPSv3 | 50 members start on the 1st | real-time | 40 members start on the 1st | fixed dataset |
| DWD | GCFS2.0 (CDS system: 2) GCFS2.1 (CDS system: 21) | 50 members start on the 1st | real-time | 30 members start on the 1st | fixed dataset |
| NCEP | CFSv2(b) | 4 members start each day 1 member per start hour: 0, 6, 12, 18 | real-time | 4 members start every 5 days (e) 1 member per start hour: 0, 6, 12, 18 | fixed dataset |
| JMA | CPS2(b) | 13 members start every 5 days(f) | real-time | 5 members start on each of 2 different dates(f) | fixed dataset |
(a) Despite being produced in a lagged mode, the data from Météo-France forecasting systems is currently encoded and provided in CDS as if all the members were initialized on the 1st.
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(d) For the Met Office contribution, due to the production of hindcasts "on-the-fly", the CDS keyword 'system' does not have the same meaning as for the other contributors. Instead, it is just an indexing label that gets changed once per year.
(e) Details of the complete list of start dates are provided in the description of CFSv2 system, section 6. Other relevant information
(f) Details of the complete list of start dates are provided in the description of CPS2 system, section 6. Other relevant information
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This document has been produced in the context of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).The activities leading to these results have been contracted by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, operator of C3S on behalf of the European Union (Delegation agreement signed on 11/11/2014). All information in this document is provided "as is" and no guarantee or warranty is given that the information is fit for any particular purpose.The user thereof uses the information at its sole risk and liability. For the avoidance of all doubts, the European Commission and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has no liability in respect of this document, which is merely representing the authors view. |
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