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In general, temperatures are forecast fairly well over the globe. On average, systematic errors in forecast 2m temperatures are generally <0.5°C. Biases in 2m temperature (verified over land) vary geographically, as well as with season, time of day and altitude. Larger biases and errors occur over orography or in snow covered areas.
Fig9.2.12-1: An example where ensemble forecast temperatures differ substantially from observed data. The plot shows the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS).
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