GloFAS v2.2 forecast skill is evaluated using the Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score (CRPSS) for ECMWF-ENS 20-year reforecasts against both persistence and climatology benchmark forecasts with respect to GloFAS-ERA5 river discharge reanalysis (also known as forced simulations (sfo)) as proxy observations at n=5997 GloFAS diagnostic river points. Further details on the evaluation methodology can be found here: GloFAS forecast skill and in the following scientific paper (in review):
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Scientific paper: Harrigan, S., Zoster, E., Cloke, H., Salamon, P., and Prudhomme, C.: Daily ensemble river discharge reforecasts and real-time forecasts from the operational Global Flood Awareness System, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-532, in review, 2020. The reforecast dataset can be downloaded from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS): Reforecast dataset on CDS: Zsoter, E., Harrigan, S., Barnard, C., Blick, M., Ferrario, I., Wetterhall F., Prudhomme, C. (2020): Reforecasts of river discharge and related data by the Global Flood Awareness System, version 2.2, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS). (< date of access >), 10.24381/cds.2d78664e |
Ensemble forecast skill with lead time
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