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This chapter discusses only the most commonly used probabilistic validation and verification methods. For a full presentation the reader is referred to Nurmi (2003).
The Reliability or Discrimination Diagram
The most transparent way to illustrate the performance and characteristics of a probabilistic forecast system is the reliability diagram, where the x-axis is the predicted probability and the y-axis the frequency with which the forecasts verify. It serves both as a way to validate the system and to verify its forecasts (see Fig12.B.1).
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