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Sceptics of probability forecasts argue that forecasters might exaggerate uncertainty “to cover their backs”. However, as will be shown, the verification of probabilistic forecasts takes the “reliability” of the probabilities into account and will detect any such misbehaviour. Indeed, one of the most used verification scores, the Brier score, is mathematically constructed in a way that encourages forecasters to state the probability they really believe in, rather than some misperceived “tactical” probability.
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