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- systematic errors reflect the limitations of the NWP model’s ability to simulate the physical and dynamic properties of the system.
- non-systematic errors reflect synoptic phase and intensity errors (as indicated by the left hand green arrow in Fig3.2-1).
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- systematic and non-systematic errors occur when the NWP
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- output is
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- verified against point observations
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- . The NWP output may not be representative of the location, height
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- , aspect of the observation
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- or capture sub-grid scale variability.
Fig3.2-1: Comparison between NWP model output and observations ought ideally to follow a two-step procedure:
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Systematic errors due to model deficiencies and/or observational representativeness can be partly corrected by statistical means (e.g. Model model output statistics MOS). A series of forecasts will also help in helps with dealing with uncertainty.
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