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Using the ens_rmse.mv icon, right-click, select 'Edit' and plot the curves for 'mslp' and 'z500'.

Q. What features can be noted from these plumes?
Q. How do these change with different forecast lead times?

 

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How do the ensemble members behave, do they give better or worse forecasts?

There might be some evidence of clustering in the ensemble plumes.

There might be some individual Note there appear to be some forecasts that give a lower RMS error than the control forecast. Bear this in mind for the following tasks.

If time:

  • Explore the plumes from other variables.
  • Do you see the same amount of spread in RMSE from other pressure levels in the atmosphere?

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