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Notes from Frederic: email 7/4/16
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*2)* Ens T639 forecasts : I saw that T639 is the 2012 operationalI think the exercises we used last year will fit well here. I will start drafting the exercises on the wiki and ask you to help and comment.
ensemble resolution, so we will see the same bifurcation in the
scenarios as explained in Pantillon : the visualization of the spread,
the plumes, the spaghettis, ... will help here. I am sure you have great
ideas on this topic. Maybe we can propose some horizontal maps of each
(or some) members ?
*3)* PCA and clustering : if you manage to put it in Metview this willWe think our PCA code can be used to reproduce fig 5. We thought we could also reproduce fig 6 but instead of dots plot the ensemble number. Then the students can build the clusters (Fig. 7) but grouping the ensemble members together?
be great lo look at the 2 distinct patterns. I asked Florian Pantillon
his NCL sources to do the trick. I'll use it to build an extra NCL
exercice with PCA, clustering and compositing, if we have time. The file
format needed will be netcdf.
*4)* Ensemble runs : initial (EDA+SV) and model (SPPT+SKEB) : same as
last yearSST experiment might be too much, except if we shorten the ensemble study...
See above. My preference after talking with people here is to use the comparison between 2012 operational ensemble and 2016 operational ensemble. The lower res (T319) ensembles; control (EDA+SV), (SPPT_SKEB) ensembles for this case are running now and we can include the data (as long as filesize does not become an issue). But honestly, I do not think there will be time. I will leave it to you to decide!
*Day
For the SCM we thought that it might be interesting to use the SCM for a point near Toulouse that experienced very heavy rainfall during HYMEX. Then we get the students to adjust the entrainment rates (similar to the convection exercises here) to see what impact it has on the precipitation?
Exercise 2.
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Can we use 700hPa VV instead of 600, to be consistent with data on other levels? We will need VV on multiple levels in order to plot the x-sections (see below), though these will only be available 00Z on each day. The horiz. maps will have VV available 6hrly but on selected levels only (we're proposing 200, 500, 700, 850).
Q: How do you want to plot the ensemble data? Plot individual members, groups of members or x-section of the cluster of member
Proposed tasks for Day 1 :
5 : Beyond D+5 deterministic scenario : MSLP only
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