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Created by
Linus Magnusson on Jun 18, 2026
5 minute read
Material from: Linus
1. Overview
2. Analyses and Observations
2.1 Event Definition
Here we will focus on 3-day mean temperature on 5-7 June for the Esperanza station (63.4S, 57.0W).
2.2 Analyses
Link to Weather Replay:
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 3 June 00UTC to 8 June 00UTC, every 12th hour.
The plots below show analyses of z500 and T850 from 30 May to 8 June, every 24 hour.
2.3 Observations
2.4 Climatological perspective
3. Forecasts
3.1 Data assimilation and observation usage
3.2 Single Forecasts for the event based on 00UTC forecasts (defined in Section 2.1)
Observations and analysis for the event
Control forecast (IFS 9-km resolution)
The plot below shows time-series of IFS control forecast from 5 June and the observations from Esperanza.
DestinE (IFS 4.4km resolution)
AIFS-single (AIFSv1.0 ~0.25 resolution)
AIFS-ENS control (~0.25 degree resolution)
3.3 Ensemble distribution
EFI (based on IFS 9-km ensemble)
The plots below show the Extreme Forecast Index for 3-day mean temperature valid 5-7 June.
The plots below show the Extreme Forecast Index for 3-day mean integrated water vapour flux valid 5-7 June.
Forecast Evolution plot
3.4 Sub-seasonal forecasts