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Created by
Linus Magnusson, last updated on Oct 09, 2026
6 minute read
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1. Overview
Between 30 September and 4 October 2026, Crete was hit by five consecutive days of intense rain and thunderstorms. Greece's General Secretariat for Civil Protection activated a red code for the island from the evening of 30 September, schools in Chania and Rethymno were closed on 1 October, and repeated 112 emergency alerts were issued for parts of Rethymno, Heraklion and Lasithi. The highest totals fell over the mountains: more than 220 mm was reported at Profitis Ilias (Heraklion) on 1 October, and the Lasithi Plateau received about 440 mm in two days and around 470 mm in four days, compared with a normal annual total of 700-900 mm. Damage was reported in all four regional units. In Mylopotamos (Rethymno), the village of Zoniana was flooded, the Diskouri bridge near Livadia was swept away and 30-40 residents were evacuated. An 80-year-old livestock farmer was found dead near Karines in Rethymno after being swept away by a stream. In Lasithi, landslides and torrents damaged roads and tourist areas around Ierapetra, and up to 85% of the crops on the Lasithi Plateau may have been affected. Between 1 and 4 October the Fire Service received 485 calls and moved 101 people to safety. Greece activated the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (EMSR933) to map the affected areas.
Sources: Euronews, ProtoThema, GreekReporter
2. Analyses and Observations
2.1 Event Definition
The evaluation will focus on the 5-day precipitation between 30 September 06UTC and 5 October 06UTC for a 0.5x0.5 degree box centred on 35.3N, 24.4E on Crete.
2.2 Analyses
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 28 September 00UTC to 5 October 00UTC, every 12th hour.
The plots below show z500 and T850 from 24 September to 5 October 00UTC, every 24 hour.
2.3 Observations
2.4 Climatological perspective
3. Forecasts
3.1 Data assimilation and observation usage
3.2 Single Forecasts for the event based on 00UTC forecasts (defined in Section 2.1)
Observations and analysis for the event
Control forecast (IFS 9-km resolution)
DestinE (IFS 4.4km resolution)
AIFS-single (AIFSv1.0 ~0.25 resolution)
AIFS-CRPS ensemble (~0.25 degree resolution)
3.3 Ensemble distribution
EFI (based on IFS 9-km ensemble)
The plots below show the EFI for 5-day precipitation for 30 September 00UTC to 5 October 00UTC, from different initial dates.
Forecast Evolution plot
The plot below shows the evolution of the forecasts for 5-day precipitation (30 September 06UTC - 5 October 06UTC) for the box on Crete defined in Section 2.1.
3.4 Sub-seasonal forecasts