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 Status:Ongoing analysis Material from:

 

 

1. Impact

With the arrival of the summer monsoon, torrential rain triggered mudslides and devastating floods in western and southern parts of Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka’s Disaster Management Centre reported that 91 people have been killed with 110 others missing as of Friday evening local time. More than 480 homes have sustained at least partial damage with nearly 17,000 families affected.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/28/floods-and-landslides-and-in-sri-lanka-kill-at-least-150-people

2. Description of the event

The plots below show the precipitation from HRES during the first 24 hours, as a proxy for the analysis.


3. Predictability

  

3.1 Data assimilation

 

3.2 HRES


3.3 ENS


3.4 Monthly forecasts


3.5 Comparison with other centres


4. Experience from general performance/other cases

 

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event


6. Additional material

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