Use case 1 - Enhancing Tropical Cyclone Forecasting in the Caribbean through collaboration within Destination Earth

Background

Tropical cyclones pose significant threats to the Caribbean, causing substantial damage to infrastructure, ecosystems, and economies. Accurate forecasting is crucial for mitigating these impacts, prompting the need for collaboration between leading meteorological organizations. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) represent two of the foremost authorities in weather prediction. Through the Destination Earth (DestinE) initiative, a European Union-led initiative aimed at creating a digital twin of the Earth for comprehensive environmental monitoring, ECMWF and NOAA can enhance the accuracy and reliability of tropical cyclone forecasts in the Caribbean.

Potential Areas of Collaboration within DestinE

Data Sharing and Integration

Both ECMWF and NOAA collect vast amounts of meteorological data. Through the DestinE platform, these datasets can be shared and integrated more effectively. NOAA's high-resolution aircraft reconnaissance data could enhance DestinE's global simulations, while ECMWF's advanced data assimilation techniques could refine NOAA's regional forecasts. Earth Observations from Europe’s Copernicus program can bring vital data sources to support rapid local impact assessments. The DestinE infrastructure would facilitate seamless data sharing, enabling both organizations to benefit from each other's observational networks, leading to more accurate and comprehensive forecast outputs.

Model Intercomparison and Ensemble Forecasting

Model intercomparison involves running multiple models simultaneously to understand their strengths and weaknesses. By comparing DestinE’s Extreme Weather Digital Twin (DT), ECMWF's IFS and NOAA's HWRF models, scientists can identify areas for improvement and develop hybrid AI-powered models that leverage the best aspects of both. Additionally, ensemble forecasting, where multiple simulations are run with slightly varying initial conditions, can be expanded through collaboration. Using novel AI-based methods, combining ECMWF's and NOAA's ensemble outputs on the DestinE platform to complement the DestinE’s Extreme DT simulations would provide a more robust probabilistic forecast, offering a range of possible outcomes and their likelihoods, which is crucial for effective risk management and impact assessments.

Joint Research and Development

Collaborative research initiatives within DestinE can drive innovation in tropical cyclone forecasting. For all parties involved, recent advances in the use of AI are revolutionising the way they work and open new possibilities. Joint development of new modelling techniques, data assimilation methods, and machine learning applications can push the boundaries of current forecasting capabilities. Regular workshops, conferences, and exchange programs for scientists and researchers would facilitate knowledge transfer and the adoption of best practices. Focused research on specific challenges, such as predicting rapid intensification or improving storm surge models, would benefit from the combined expertise of ECMWF, NOAA, and other DestinE partners.

Training and Capacity Building

Training and capacity building are essential for ensuring that meteorological agencies in the Caribbean (many with EU links) can utilize advanced forecasting tools effectively. ECMWF and NOAA can jointly develop training programs within the DestinE initiative for regional meteorologists, focusing on the application of sophisticated models, interpretation of ensemble forecasts, and integration of real-time data. The Commission could assist these affords with expertise from DG-INTPA and DG-Echo and links to ongoing collaborations with local partners. By enhancing the skills of local forecasters, the accuracy and timeliness of tropical cyclone warnings and impact assessments in the Caribbean can be significantly improved.

Exchange of data & services

To come summer 2024 ...

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