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Section 1 Introduction
Section 2 The ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System - IFS
Section 3 Availability and Interpolation of NWP output
Section 4 NWP Evolution versus Reality
Section 5 Forecast Ensemble (ENS) - Rationale and Construction
Section 5.1 Generation of the Ensemble
Section 5.1.1 Ensemble of Data Assimilations - EDA
Section 5.1.2 Singular Vectors - SV
Section 5.1.3 Stochastically Perturbed Perturbations
Section 5.2 Remarks on the Sub-seasonal range
Section 5.3 Model Climates
Section 6 Using Deterministic and Probabilistic Forecasts
Section 7 ENS Products - Dealing with Uncertainty
Section 8 ENS products - What they are and how to use them
Section 9 Physical considerations when interpreting model output
Section 10 Interfaces for displaying Model Output
Section 11 Conclusion
Section 12 Annexes
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Forecast User Guide
Section 5 Forecast Ensemble (ENS) - Rationale and Construction
Section 5.1 Generation of the Ensemble
Section 5.1.3 Stochastically Perturbed Perturbations
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