A new WWRP working group

Following the completion of THORPEX, a new World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) working group on Predictability, Dynamics and Ensemble Forecasting (PDEF) has been formed. 

The new working group will:

• combine elements of the former THORPEX working groups on GIFS-TIGGE and PDP;
• involve both operational and academic communities in scientific research and development challenges;
• provide a centre of scientific expertise on dynamics, predictability and ensemble forecasting that was previously not covered in the core WWRP programme;
• support the WWRP research projects, including the 3 THORPEX legacy projects, S2S, PPP and HIWeather, plus other forecast demonstration projects (FDPs) and research and development projects (RDPs).

The group is chaired by Sarah-Jane Lock (ECMWF) and Laure Raynaud (Meteo-France), and includes scientific experts from a range of operational and research organizations, including the chair of the TIGGE panel.

Scientific Challenges

The PDEF working group will focus on a number of scientific challenges. The set of challenges is intended to evolve as priorities changes.  The initial challenges are listed below.

• Stochastic representation of the effect of unresolved processes in numerical models  
• Construction of ensemble initial conditions
• Interactions of diabatic processes with meso/synoptic scale dynamics
• Assessment of multi-model ensembles and calibration techniques
• Coupled modelling & assimilation