Hydrological Products
^: associated daily time series available through the Copernicus Early Warning Data Store 30 days after issue of the forecast
Product name | Description (established over forecast horizon) | Outputs | Forecasting horizon | Forecast Model (number of members) | |
Medium-range | Det. DWD | Return period exceedance map showing the highest return period exceedance within the forecast range based on the deterministic DWD forecast. Only shown for points with upstream area above 50 km2 and 1.5-year return period threshold exceeding 1 m3/s.
| Map based on LISFLOOD river network | 7 days | DWD-DET (1) |
Medium-range | AIFS Single Please note: This layer is in use only from EFAS version 5.5 (implemented on 10 Sep 2025) | Return period exceedance map showing the highest return period exceedance within the forecast range based on the AIFS single forecast. Only shown for points with upstream area above 50 km2 and 1.5-year return period threshold exceeding 1 m3/s.
| Map based on LISFLOOD river network | 10 days | AIFS Single (1) |
Medium-range | COSMO >5-year RP | Number of COSMO-LEPS based forecasts exceeding the EFAS 5-year return period threshold. Only shown for points with upstream area above 50 km2 and 1.5-year return period threshold exceeding 1 m3/s.
| Map based on LISFLOOD river network | 5.5 days | COSMO (up to 5 days only; not full EFAS spatial domain) (20) |
Medium-range | COSMO > 20-year RP | Number of COSMO-LEPS based forecasts exceeding the EFAS 20-year return period threshold. Only shown for points with upstream area above 50 km2 and 1.5-year return period threshold exceeding 1 m3/s.
| Map based on LISFLOOD river network | 5.5 days | COSMO (up to 5 days only; not full EFAS spatial domain) (20) |
Medium-range | ECMWF-ENS >5-year RP | Number of ECMWF-ENS based forecasts exceeding the EFAS 5-year return period threshold. Only shown for points with upstream area above 50 km2 and 1.5-year return period threshold exceeding 1 m3/s. | Map based on LISFLOOD river network | 10 days | ECMWF-ENS (51) |
Medium-range | ECMWF-ENS >20-year RP | Number of ECMWF-ENS based forecasts exceeding the EFAS 20-year return period threshold. Only shown for points with upstream area above 50 km2 and 1.5-year return period threshold exceeding 1 m3/s. | Map based on LISFLOOD river network | 10 days | ECMWF-ENS (51) |
Seasonal range | River flow anomaly and uncertainty information for the next 7 months, based on monthly average discharge, for all river pixels over 250 km2. Detailed information is provided in a pop-up window for reporting points (fixed and basin-representative) with the forecast signal and probability evolution, including the model climatology and water balance of the recent past. Further information about the methodology and products is provided at CEMS-Flood sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting.
| Map showing forecast signal for individual lead times on rivers Graph of weekly averaged forecast hydrograph (box-plots) with water balance of 6 past months and model climatology reference Probability evolution table with the most recent 7 seasonal forecast runs | Monthly, out to 7 months | SEAS5 (51 ensemble members) | |
River flow anomaly and uncertainty information for the next 7 months, based on monthly average discharge, aggregated over 204 predefined river basins. Further information about the methodology and products is provided at CEMS-Flood sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting.
| Map showing forecast signal for individual lead times aggregated onto predefined basins | Monthly, out to 7 months | SEAS5 (51 ensemble members) | ||
Sub-seasonal range | River flow anomaly and uncertainty information for the next 5-6 (depending on which day of the week the model runs) calendar weeks, based on weekly average discharge, for all river pixels over 250 km2. Detailed information is provided in a pop-up window for reporting points (fixed and basin-representative) with the forecast signal and probability evolution, including the model climatology and water balance of the recent past. Further information about the methodology and products is provided at CEMS-Flood sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting.
| Map showing forecast signal for individual lead times on rivers Graph of weekly averaged forecast hydrograph (box-plots) with water balance of 6 past weeks and model climatology reference (black dots). Probability evolution table with the most recent (34-40, depending of the day of the week) forecast runs. | Weekly, out to 5-6 weeks | ECMWF-ENS and ENS-extended combined with 51 members (first 51 members used from the 101 members of the ENS-extended after day 15) | |
River flow anomaly and uncertainty information for the next 5-6 (depending on which day of the week the model runs) calendar weeks, based on weekly average discharge, aggregated over 204 predefined river basins. Further information about the methodology and products is provided at CEMS-Flood sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting.
| Map showing forecast signal for individual lead times aggregated onto predefined basins | Weekly, out to 5-6 weeks | ECMWF-ENS and ENS-extended combined with 51 members (first 51 members used from the 101 members of the ENS-extended after day 15) | ||
Medium-range (withdrawn) | Det. ECMWF Det. ECMWF was withdrawn and replaced by AIFS with EFAS v5.5 on | Return period exceedance map showing the highest return period exceedance within the forecast range based on the deterministic ECMWF forecast. Only shown for points with upstream area above 50 km2 and 1.5-year return period threshold exceeding 1 m3/s.
| Map based on LISFLOOD river network | 10 days | ECMWF-HRES (1) |
