On Monday 13.09, the EC46 (or EC42 as it is named in Open Charts) came up with the weather regime classification below, suggesting a really strong blocking episode, similar to the one we had seen beginning and end of July. And that forecast was quite a change from the seasonal forecast that was released only 1 week earlier, suggesting increased chances for westerly flow towards Europe in October.
Then, on Thursday 16.09, the updated EC46 came up with the solution below. A big jump in the +NAO chances for following two weeks.
I wonder if this volatility is related to the intense Atlantic activity at the moment and what would be the best strategy for a forecaster to follow at such situations.