Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
Picture
1. Impact
2. Description of the event
24hr precipitation map from 19/07 at 05:00 to 05/20/07 at 05:00 (UTC+8)
The plots below show the evolution of MSLP and 12-hour precipitation from 18 July 00z to 20 July 12z
The plots below show the same as above but for z500 and t850.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The next plot shows the evolution of the ensemble and HRES for 48-hour precipitation over Beijing. The ensemble started to pick up the signal of extreme rainfall from Saturday with 25% risk for more than 150 mm.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plot below show weekly precipitation anomaly for 18-24 July.
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- Compare with case from 21 July 2012, discussed in http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v68.31045