With effect from Cy49r1, HRES and Ensemble Control (ex-HRES) are scientifically, structurally and computationally identical.  Their products are known as Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES).

The Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) output runs on the schedule of HRES in Cy48 and earlier.   It runs before the medium range ensemble starts.  It is labelled HRES for the convenience of users but the name will be withdrawn in a future update cycle.

HRES output is identical to Ensemble Control (ex-HRES) and products may be used interchangeably.    

The Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) is a single run forecast model that runs twice daily.  It gives forecasts to Day15 based on 00UTC  and 12UTC data times.   It provides a detailed description of future weather and also for 3.5 days at 06UTC and 18UTC.

The current Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) has horizontal resolution of ~9km and a vertical resolution in 137 levels.  The Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) has high horizontal and vertical resolutions.  This has the benefit of feeding energy from smaller to larger scale features (as happens in the real atmosphere).  But also risks developing or amplifying spurious small features, or suppressing existing ones that should be retained. 

Any individual Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) forecast may not be the most skilful compared to any individual ensemble member forecast.  In isolation it cannot provide an estimate of forecast uncertainty or confidence.

The Control Forecast (ex-HRES) is coupled to the Wave model (ECWAM) and to the Dynamic Ocean model (NEMO).  This affects development of Tropical Storms.

The dissemination schedule is the same as Ensemble control given in Section 3:



(FUG Associated with Cy49r1)