Status:Ongoing analysis Material from:
Picture
1. Impact
Temperatures in some places exceeded 40C.
The end of the heatwave was followed by an outbreak of severe thunderstorms that started on 2nd July and continued on the 3rd July affecting Bulgaria and southern Romania. A lot of lightning activity, large hail, strong wind gusts and excessive rain accompanied severe convective storms. Hail stones of up to 5 cm destroyed the crops in few places in central northern Bulgaria.
Air mass RGB animation of the severe convective outbreak over the Balkans, 2-3 July 2017.
ATDnet lightning flashes, animation.
Convective hazards on 2nd July (left) and 3rd July (right). Combination of ATDnet lightning density and European Severe Weather Database (ESWD).
More than 100 mm in less than 48 hours were measured in some places in Northern Bulgaria and in the high valleys of Western Bulgaria, causing flash flooding. The worst affected regions were Samokov, western Bulgaria and Pleven and Lovech districts in Northern Bulgaria.
Rainfall totals 02/07/17 6Z-03/07/17 6Z (left), 03/07/17 6Z-04/07/17 6Z (middle) and 02/07/17 6Z-04/07/17 6Z (right).
2. Description of the event
An extreme heatwave occurred over south-east Europe in the last week of June.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases