Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
1. Impact
In the mid of October north-western Italy and southern Austria was hit by heavy precipitation.
2. Description of the event
Accumulated precipitation from observations in the box 45.5N-47.5N, 12E-14E from 1 September (black, think) and daily accumulations (black, thin). Values from the observation climatology in grey. While October was drier than normal, November had several events of heavy precipitation, with the worst days were 15 and 17 November.
The plots below show the precipitation observations accumulated on 15 October (left) and 17 October (right).
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
Focusing on the event on 17 October, the plots below show observations (first plot) and HRES forecasts valid the same date but from different initial times.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI and SOT for 3-day precipitation valid for 15-17 October. The event was well captured more than a week in advance.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plots below show weekly anomalies for precipitation valid 11-18 November.
The plots below show the same as above but for MSLP.
