201410 - Snowfall - Nepal

 Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Tim, Linus

Discussed in the following Daily reports:

Picture

1. Impact

A blizzard hit the region Annapurna in Nepal around the 14 October, killing at least 39 hikers. The snapshot from Goggle Map below shows the location.

2. Description of the event

The heavy precipitation was mainly due to the aftermaths of the tropical cyclone Hudhud, with made landfall on the Indian east-coast on the 12 October (see below for track forecast after the landfall).

The plots below shows 12-hour forecasts of MSLP and precipitation for the days before the blizzard.

The animation below shows the change in the snow cover in the forecast from 11 October 00z.

For some reason the precipitation observations are missing from Nepal for the days of interest.

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

3.3 ENS

The plots below show the EFI and SOT for snowfall valid on the 14 October. Already 7 days before the event the SOT was above 5 for the affected area.

The next plot shows the CDF for snowfall for the point 28.8N, 84E, which is in the worst affected area.All forecasts from 7 days before event and later, had 50% risk for exceeding the maximum of the model climate!

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

• A very good prediction of the extreme event. Probably due the the predictability of the tropical cyclone.

6. Additional material