Details of the GloFAS forecast skill methodology used to generate the results below can be found here: GloFAS forecast skill
Ensemble forecast skill with lead time
Figure 1: Global median Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score (CRPSS) for GloFASv2.1 reforecasts against persistence (red line) and climatology (blue line) benchmarks from 1- to 30-day lead times with respect to GloFASv2.1 river discharge reanalysis at 6013 catchments. Reforecasts are produced twice per week over 1997-2016 with 11 ensemble members each.
Spatial distribution of skill
Short to medium lead time (river discharge persistence as benchmark)
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Figure 2: Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score (CRPSS) for GloFASv2.1 reforecasts against persistence benchmarks for short to medium lead times (1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-days) with respect to GloFASv2.1 river discharge reanalysis at 6013 catchments. Reforecasts are produced twice per week over 1997-2016 with 11 ensemble members each.
Extended lead time (river discharge climatology as benchmark)
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Figure 3: Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score (CRPSS) for GloFASv2.1 reforecasts against a climatology benchmark for extended lead times (15-, 20-, 25-, and 30-days) with respect to GloFASv2.1 river discharge reanalysis at 6013 catchments. Reforecasts are produced twice per week over 1997-2016 with 11 ensemble members each.