This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the DJF 2025 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes 13 forecasts initialized between Thursday 13th November 2025 and Thursday 5th February 2026 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview .
Regional skill score files
All regional RPSSs are available to download via the following link:
DJF 2025 Regional RPSSs (Excel format)
Regional scores for the top 10 teams of global, period-aggregated, variable-averaged RPSSs
Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania MicroEnsemble 1 MicroDuet 1 0.083 0.107 0.087 0.033 0.065 0.03 0.061 0.114 0.025 0.118 0.083 0.064 MicroEnsemble 1 StillLearning 2 0.071 0.088 0.087 0.03 0.068 0.013 0.06 0.11 0.012 0.117 0.071 0.052 MicroEnsemble 1 Huracan 6 0.058 0.054 0.086 0.011 0.081 0.02 0.07 0.124 -0.025 0.029 0.058 0.058 LP 2 LPM 3 0.067 0.084 0.084 0.001 0.076 0.005 0.065 0.121 -0.003 0.085 0.059 0.055 AIFS 3 AIFShera 4 0.063 0.058 0.096 -0.004 0.089 0.018 0.121 0.096 -0.029 0.044 0.082 0.054 AIFS 3 AIFSgaia 7 0.043 0.042 0.077 -0.002 0.043 0.001 0.046 0.11 -0.045 0.021 0.045 0.058 AIFS 3 AIFSthalassa 9 0.041 0.022 0.079 0.012 0.083 0.01 0.065 0.103 -0.068 -0.009 0.059 0.064 CMAandFDU 4 FengshunHybrid 5 0.06 0.076 0.076 0.004 0.07 -0.002 0.066 0.088 0.007 0.076 0.069 0.042 CMAandFDU 4 FengshunAdjust 8 0.042 0.056 0.045 0.006 0.041 0.002 0.051 0.024 0.007 0.071 0.054 0.031 CMAandFDU 4 Fengshun 12 0.009 0.011 0.018 -0.001 0.013 -0.002 0.005 -0.019 -0.045 0.015 0.047 -0.021 UWAtmosNVIDIA 5 DLESyMS2Sv1 10 0.026 0.034 0.025 0.009 0.026 0.011 0.043 0.028 -0.008 0.013 0.012 0.047 CliMA 6 CliMAWeather2 11 0.013 0.023 0.011 -0.003 0.007 -0.005 0.005 0.001 0.005 0.035 0.01 -0.008 CliMA 6 CliMAWeather 16 -0.013 -0.012 -0.014 -0.035 -0.008 -0.012 -0.016 -0.018 -0.047 -0.001 -0.016 -0.024 scienceAI 7 zephyr 13 0.009 -0.01 0.025 0.01 0.032 0.039 0.011 0.038 -0.033 -0.069 0.02 0.002 scienceAI 7 ngcm 14 -0.003 -0.016 0.022 0.003 0.017 -0.033 0.013 0.026 -0.048 -0.064 0.018 -0.008 scienceAI 7 findforecast 15 -0.006 -0.007 0.002 0.003 -0.035 -0.008 -0.027 -0.005 -0.02 -0.005 0.0 -0.017 FengWuW2S 8 FengWu2 17 -0.022 -0.049 0.018 0.002 -0.021 -0.016 -0.009 -0.037 -0.071 -0.047 0.007 -0.031 FengWuW2S 8 FengWu 18 -0.026 -0.049 0.015 -0.012 -0.043 -0.005 -0.019 -0.033 -0.081 -0.036 -0.0 -0.041 FengWuW2S 8 FengWu3 19 -0.027 -0.061 0.004 -0.018 0.004 0.022 0.005 -0.027 -0.081 -0.086 -0.001 -0.033 JR 9 slowMamba 20 -0.046 -0.051 -0.04 -0.037 0.019 -0.123 -0.006 0.009 -0.088 -0.062 -0.054 -0.057 NordicS2S 10 NordicS2S1 21 -0.104 -0.112 -0.06 -0.042 -0.261 -0.048 -0.054 -0.088 -0.076 -0.119 -0.153 -0.086 NordicS2S 10 NordicS2S2 22 -0.115 -0.17 -0.043 -0.013 -0.15 -0.099 -0.116 -0.071 -0.109 -0.194 -0.084 -0.157 NordicS2S 10 NordicS2S3 23 -0.125 -0.138 -0.076 -0.088 -0.198 -0.194 -0.148 -0.134 -0.13 -0.166 -0.075 -0.089
Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania MicroEnsemble 1 MicroDuet 1 0.054 0.077 0.055 0.016 0.029 0.01 0.028 0.064 0.033 0.091 0.057 0.034 MicroEnsemble 1 StillLearning 2 0.044 0.062 0.054 0.014 0.031 -0.015 0.024 0.061 0.02 0.09 0.049 0.023 MicroEnsemble 1 Huracan 5 0.031 0.027 0.05 -0.002 0.044 -0.002 0.042 0.064 -0.002 0.001 0.034 0.027 CMAandFDU 2 FengshunHybrid 3 0.035 0.04 0.051 -0.001 0.051 -0.01 0.037 0.057 -0.003 0.045 0.048 0.017 CMAandFDU 2 FengshunAdjust 6 0.027 0.028 0.042 0.004 0.048 -0.005 0.03 0.043 -0.002 0.041 0.037 0.003 CMAandFDU 2 Fengshun 12 0.0 0.001 0.001 -0.02 0.035 -0.007 -0.022 -0.023 -0.034 -0.021 0.046 -0.026 LP 3 LPM 4 0.035 0.046 0.055 -0.01 0.046 -0.043 0.032 0.059 0.022 0.056 0.046 0.012 AIFS 4 AIFShera 7 0.026 0.021 0.058 -0.02 0.048 -0.009 0.071 0.046 -0.027 0.019 0.058 0.002 AIFS 4 AIFSgaia 8 0.024 0.024 0.047 -0.015 0.027 -0.011 0.033 0.066 -0.018 0.016 0.028 0.02 AIFS 4 AIFSthalassa 16 -0.02 -0.067 0.037 -0.028 0.04 -0.023 0.055 0.043 -0.159 -0.07 0.013 -0.026 CliMA 5 CliMAWeather2 9 0.009 0.007 0.018 -0.004 0.002 0.013 0.016 0.001 -0.014 0.016 0.014 -0.001 CliMA 5 CliMAWeather 15 -0.012 -0.02 -0.006 -0.03 -0.008 0.016 -0.004 -0.025 -0.038 -0.009 -0.005 -0.021 UWAtmosNVIDIA 6 DLESyMS2Sv1 10 0.004 0.006 0.016 -0.021 0.005 -0.023 0.03 -0.007 -0.012 -0.006 0.018 0.005 scienceAI 7 zephyr 11 0.002 -0.004 0.008 0.003 0.005 0.011 -0.003 0.02 0.004 -0.049 0.0 -0.011 scienceAI 7 findforecast 13 -0.003 -0.009 0.014 -0.004 -0.028 -0.001 -0.032 0.012 -0.012 -0.014 0.002 -0.02 scienceAI 7 ngcm 14 -0.005 -0.018 0.014 -0.004 0.019 -0.027 0.004 0.015 -0.019 -0.048 0.014 -0.014 FengWuW2S 8 FengWu3 17 -0.031 -0.04 -0.001 -0.022 -0.056 -0.052 -0.026 0.013 -0.07 -0.036 -0.034 -0.034 FengWuW2S 8 FengWu2 19 -0.049 -0.082 -0.005 -0.028 -0.037 -0.024 -0.034 -0.036 -0.079 -0.074 -0.034 -0.069 FengWuW2S 8 FengWu 20 -0.051 -0.089 0.002 -0.03 -0.041 -0.021 -0.02 -0.023 -0.084 -0.076 -0.036 -0.099 NordicS2S 9 NordicS2S2 18 -0.042 -0.058 0.014 -0.035 -0.022 -0.126 -0.043 0.011 -0.052 -0.056 -0.018 -0.061 NordicS2S 9 NordicS2S1 22 -0.105 -0.151 -0.051 -0.016 -0.132 -0.05 -0.044 -0.079 -0.095 -0.133 -0.119 -0.149 NordicS2S 9 NordicS2S3 23 -0.133 -0.156 -0.097 -0.027 -0.094 -0.21 -0.138 -0.042 -0.143 -0.177 -0.181 -0.079 JR 10 slowMamba 21 -0.059 -0.071 -0.066 -0.032 0.027 -0.083 -0.009 -0.049 -0.091 -0.077 -0.06 -0.028
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
