This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the DJF 2025 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes 1 forecasts initialized between Thursday 13th November 2025 and Thursday 13th November 2025 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview .
Regional skill score files
All regional RPSSs are available to download via the following link:
DJF 2025 Regional RPSSs (Excel format)
Regional scores for the top 10 teams of global, period-aggregated, variable-averaged RPSSs
Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania AIFS 1 AIFShera 1 0.16 0.183 0.081 0.268 0.091 0.16 0.019 0.1 0.132 0.216 0.095 0.194 AIFS 1 AIFSthalassa 2 0.148 0.154 0.095 0.308 0.086 0.136 0.032 0.096 0.108 0.124 0.122 0.196 AIFS 1 AIFSgaia 3 0.146 0.17 0.07 0.278 0.06 0.147 0.021 0.118 0.179 0.191 0.036 0.194 LP 2 LPM 4 0.14 0.164 0.053 0.236 0.062 0.223 0.021 0.065 0.083 0.22 0.071 0.169 MicroEnsemble 3 StillLearning 5 0.134 0.154 0.068 0.231 0.039 0.219 0.05 0.059 0.104 0.177 0.093 0.137 MicroEnsemble 3 MicroDuet 6 0.128 0.158 0.052 0.225 0.026 0.192 0.041 0.045 0.095 0.198 0.085 0.118 MicroEnsemble 3 Huracan 8 0.104 0.126 0.002 0.235 -0.01 0.238 -0.024 0.045 0.04 0.218 -0.001 0.111 CMAandFDU 4 FengshunHybrid 7 0.114 0.168 0.005 0.198 0.031 0.172 -0.015 -0.036 0.107 0.197 0.095 0.161 CMAandFDU 4 FengshunAdjust 10 0.09 0.157 -0.004 0.135 0.024 0.029 -0.022 -0.047 0.103 0.211 0.053 0.121 CMAandFDU 4 Fengshun 14 0.007 0.008 0.048 -0.007 0.01 -0.105 0.053 -0.037 0.043 0.238 -0.025 -0.249 UWAtmosNVIDIA 5 DLESyMS2Sv1 9 0.092 0.141 0.013 0.188 0.016 0.065 0.015 -0.016 0.094 0.181 0.057 0.176 JR 6 slowMamba 11 0.064 0.118 -0.006 0.095 -0.024 0.038 -0.073 -0.002 0.14 0.039 0.06 0.073 scienceAI 7 zephyr 12 0.057 0.054 0.007 0.142 0.018 0.11 0.009 -0.012 -0.03 0.026 0.049 0.089 scienceAI 7 ngcm 13 0.025 0.05 0.01 0.11 -0.013 -0.134 -0.019 -0.016 0.003 -0.021 0.053 0.095 scienceAI 7 findforecast 20 -0.001 -0.005 -0.009 0.06 -0.025 0.01 0.071 -0.049 -0.053 0.003 0.026 -0.035 IgnisNeuralis42 8 GCast42 15 0.002 0.027 -0.006 -0.041 -0.004 0.004 0.084 -0.074 0.015 0.038 0.054 -0.103 CelestScience 9 Tellus 16 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 9 KanguS2SEasyUQ 16 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 9 KanguPlusPlus 16 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 9 KanguParametricPrediction 16 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0
Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania MicroEnsemble 1 Huracan 1 0.064 0.052 0.103 0.06 0.017 0.067 0.074 0.126 -0.035 0.008 0.128 0.049 MicroEnsemble 1 MicroDuet 2 0.063 0.061 0.093 0.091 0.007 0.052 0.08 0.085 -0.015 0.102 0.122 0.005 MicroEnsemble 1 StillLearning 3 0.058 0.05 0.103 0.092 0.009 0.055 0.078 0.092 -0.022 0.092 0.104 -0.015 LP 2 LPM 4 0.054 0.046 0.089 0.054 0.01 0.028 0.022 0.092 0.003 0.045 0.121 -0.02 IgnisNeuralis42 3 GCast42 5 0.048 0.089 0.035 0.07 -0.042 -0.043 0.074 -0.003 0.023 0.057 0.083 0.074 AIFS 4 AIFShera 6 0.022 -0.055 0.133 0.005 0.061 0.069 0.09 0.12 -0.168 0.085 0.127 -0.122 AIFS 4 AIFSgaia 8 0.017 -0.059 0.129 0.033 0.062 -0.003 0.093 0.148 -0.114 0.021 0.095 -0.058 AIFS 4 AIFSthalassa 15 -0.002 -0.085 0.106 0.012 0.042 0.022 0.07 0.141 -0.132 -0.059 0.079 -0.034 UWAtmosNVIDIA 5 DLESyMS2Sv1 7 0.018 -0.013 0.096 0.037 -0.046 0.036 0.079 0.052 -0.047 0.059 0.085 -0.013 scienceAI 6 zephyr 9 0.0 -0.042 0.045 0.003 -0.008 0.067 0.111 0.002 -0.025 -0.042 0.026 -0.035 scienceAI 6 findforecast 16 -0.005 -0.008 0.023 0.03 -0.038 -0.055 0.059 -0.018 0.015 -0.001 0.011 -0.032 scienceAI 6 ngcm 21 -0.049 -0.087 0.007 -0.015 0.002 -0.099 0.057 -0.026 -0.069 -0.038 -0.011 -0.073 CelestScience 7 Tellus 10 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 7 KanguS2SEasyUQ 10 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 7 KanguPlusPlus 10 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 7 KanguParametricPrediction 10 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 CliMA 9 CliMAWeather2 14 -0.001 -0.004 0.022 0.031 -0.024 -0.017 0.061 -0.053 -0.037 0.015 0.069 0.011 CliMA 9 CliMAWeather 20 -0.037 -0.077 0.008 -0.018 -0.097 0.126 0.055 -0.074 -0.16 0.004 0.014 -0.097 JR 10 slowMamba 17 -0.008 -0.078 0.069 0.053 0.012 0.108 0.091 -0.045 -0.137 -0.006 0.065 0.022
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
