This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the DJF 2025 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes 7 forecasts initialized between Thursday 13th November 2025 and Thursday 25th December 2025 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview .
Regional skill score files
All regional RPSSs are available to download via the following link:
DJF 2025 Regional RPSSs (Excel format)
Regional scores for the top 10 teams of global, period-aggregated, variable-averaged RPSSs
Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania MicroEnsemble 1 MicroDuet 1 0.071 0.092 0.077 0.045 0.027 0.036 0.036 0.098 0.005 0.124 0.08 0.022 MicroEnsemble 1 StillLearning 2 0.065 0.08 0.082 0.046 0.032 0.025 0.037 0.102 0.002 0.118 0.079 0.017 MicroEnsemble 1 Huracan 5 0.046 0.046 0.068 0.006 0.036 0.015 0.028 0.112 -0.047 0.055 0.053 -0.002 LP 2 LPM 3 0.048 0.061 0.076 0.006 0.043 -0.017 0.019 0.127 -0.041 0.085 0.054 0.005 AIFS 3 AIFShera 4 0.046 0.04 0.076 -0.02 0.067 0.02 0.029 0.105 -0.038 0.076 0.073 -0.029 AIFS 3 AIFSgaia 6 0.039 0.035 0.081 -0.002 0.029 -0.014 -0.005 0.125 -0.046 0.066 0.065 -0.002 AIFS 3 AIFSthalassa 7 0.038 0.023 0.076 0.013 0.057 0.003 0.012 0.107 -0.053 0.038 0.063 0.021 CMAandFDU 4 FengshunHybrid 8 0.035 0.043 0.058 -0.004 0.041 -0.016 0.028 0.077 -0.019 0.07 0.056 -0.018 CMAandFDU 4 FengshunAdjust 9 0.025 0.035 0.033 -0.001 0.004 -0.0 0.011 0.012 -0.005 0.084 0.04 -0.021 CMAandFDU 4 Fengshun 16 -0.007 -0.015 0.018 -0.008 -0.015 -0.038 0.002 -0.032 -0.047 0.032 0.034 -0.083 UWAtmosNVIDIA 5 DLESyMS2Sv1 10 0.009 0.011 0.013 0.008 0.014 0.002 -0.013 0.035 -0.003 0.022 -0.004 -0.009 CliMA 6 CliMAWeather2 11 0.007 0.011 0.011 0.008 0.0 -0.025 0.003 -0.013 -0.013 0.042 0.023 -0.035 CliMA 6 CliMAWeather 19 -0.03 -0.036 -0.016 -0.039 -0.031 -0.043 -0.021 -0.035 -0.09 -0.011 -0.011 -0.061 KITKangu 7 KanguS2SEasyUQ 12 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 7 KanguPlusPlus 12 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 7 KanguParametricPrediction 12 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 scienceAI 8 zephyr 15 -0.005 -0.027 0.018 0.016 -0.0 0.031 -0.007 0.034 -0.052 -0.046 -0.0 -0.036 scienceAI 8 findforecast 17 -0.01 -0.012 0.003 0.01 -0.025 -0.04 -0.018 0.001 -0.033 -0.02 -0.005 -0.003 scienceAI 8 ngcm 18 -0.019 -0.03 0.009 0.016 -0.018 -0.06 -0.009 0.008 -0.037 -0.063 -0.001 -0.014 FengWuW2S 9 FengWu2 20 -0.041 -0.094 0.013 0.022 0.018 -0.055 -0.043 -0.029 -0.113 -0.037 -0.017 -0.079 FengWuW2S 9 FengWu 21 -0.046 -0.09 0.006 -0.008 0.004 -0.055 -0.043 -0.023 -0.134 -0.026 -0.034 -0.07 FengWuW2S 9 FengWu3 23 -0.05 -0.111 0.017 -0.018 -0.002 -0.008 -0.014 -0.022 -0.132 -0.02 -0.022 -0.129 JR 10 slowMamba 22 -0.047 -0.072 -0.003 -0.033 -0.008 -0.083 0.004 -0.028 -0.134 -0.03 -0.009 -0.126
Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania MicroEnsemble 1 MicroDuet 1 0.048 0.061 0.058 0.016 0.037 0.003 0.022 0.06 0.004 0.097 0.065 -0.004 MicroEnsemble 1 StillLearning 2 0.042 0.051 0.059 0.018 0.043 -0.017 0.023 0.062 0.001 0.094 0.057 -0.009 MicroEnsemble 1 Huracan 4 0.023 0.01 0.055 -0.02 0.052 -0.026 0.04 0.057 -0.039 0.018 0.049 -0.036 LP 2 LPM 3 0.027 0.029 0.064 -0.016 0.066 -0.085 0.037 0.073 -0.014 0.051 0.056 -0.024 CMAandFDU 3 FengshunHybrid 5 0.018 0.01 0.042 -0.013 0.053 -0.021 0.029 0.04 -0.038 0.048 0.039 -0.024 CMAandFDU 3 FengshunAdjust 8 0.003 -0.004 0.028 -0.012 0.027 -0.023 -0.007 0.013 -0.008 0.05 0.024 -0.056 CMAandFDU 3 Fengshun 16 -0.018 -0.028 -0.001 -0.029 0.018 -0.041 -0.051 -0.035 -0.037 -0.003 0.033 -0.105 AIFS 4 AIFShera 6 0.017 -0.001 0.057 -0.02 0.049 -0.011 0.042 0.042 -0.012 0.049 0.059 -0.067 AIFS 4 AIFSgaia 7 0.014 -0.0 0.054 -0.014 0.031 -0.021 0.009 0.067 -0.017 0.039 0.042 -0.053 AIFS 4 AIFSthalassa 18 -0.026 -0.086 0.045 -0.028 0.046 -0.039 0.021 0.059 -0.159 -0.084 0.024 -0.04 CliMA 5 CliMAWeather2 9 0.003 0.002 0.01 0.0 0.003 -0.003 -0.007 -0.005 -0.042 0.022 0.014 -0.01 CliMA 5 CliMAWeather 19 -0.032 -0.042 -0.021 -0.036 -0.034 -0.002 -0.022 -0.045 -0.089 -0.011 -0.016 -0.048 KITKangu 6 KanguS2SEasyUQ 10 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 6 KanguPlusPlus 10 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 6 KanguParametricPrediction 10 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 scienceAI 7 findforecast 13 -0.002 -0.006 0.009 0.005 0.002 -0.017 -0.044 0.02 -0.02 -0.016 -0.003 0.002 scienceAI 7 zephyr 15 -0.01 -0.028 0.007 0.011 0.015 -0.004 -0.024 0.026 -0.028 -0.031 -0.012 -0.043 scienceAI 7 ngcm 17 -0.019 -0.042 0.008 0.01 0.017 -0.028 -0.022 0.007 -0.026 -0.045 -0.007 -0.024 UWAtmosNVIDIA 8 DLESyMS2Sv1 14 -0.003 -0.013 0.021 -0.006 -0.0 -0.024 0.004 0.014 -0.011 0.019 0.003 -0.043 FengWuW2S 9 FengWu3 20 -0.055 -0.073 -0.029 -0.02 -0.023 -0.109 -0.047 0.01 -0.126 -0.047 -0.064 -0.08 FengWuW2S 9 FengWu 23 -0.084 -0.161 -0.018 -0.021 0.008 -0.046 -0.043 -0.044 -0.183 -0.095 -0.069 -0.122 FengWuW2S 9 FengWu2 24 -0.087 -0.15 -0.032 -0.026 0.024 -0.102 -0.068 -0.056 -0.171 -0.082 -0.06 -0.099 JR 10 slowMamba 21 -0.061 -0.092 -0.02 -0.043 -0.017 -0.084 0.015 -0.098 -0.113 -0.051 0.001 -0.112
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
