This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the DJF 2025 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes 2 forecasts initialized between Thursday 13th November 2025 and Thursday 20th November 2025 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview .
Regional skill score files
All regional RPSSs are available to download via the following link:
DJF 2025 Regional RPSSs (Excel format)
Regional scores for the top 10 teams of global, period-aggregated, variable-averaged RPSSs
Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania MicroEnsemble 1 StillLearning 1 0.096 0.103 0.105 0.153 0.014 0.118 0.076 0.104 -0.002 0.165 0.099 0.054 MicroEnsemble 1 MicroDuet 2 0.095 0.112 0.089 0.148 0.008 0.097 0.066 0.095 -0.01 0.174 0.107 0.064 MicroEnsemble 1 Huracan 6 0.081 0.091 0.067 0.13 -0.002 0.109 0.029 0.112 -0.055 0.143 0.071 0.093 AIFS 2 AIFSthalassa 3 0.083 0.061 0.091 0.171 0.094 0.074 0.08 0.098 -0.041 0.088 0.112 0.113 AIFS 2 AIFShera 4 0.081 0.061 0.105 0.087 0.08 0.077 0.01 0.148 -0.078 0.156 0.095 -0.033 AIFS 2 AIFSgaia 7 0.074 0.059 0.097 0.093 0.058 0.047 0.07 0.127 -0.061 0.151 0.077 0.007 LP 3 LPM 5 0.081 0.081 0.089 0.12 0.005 0.12 0.039 0.112 -0.068 0.18 0.068 0.039 CMAandFDU 4 FengshunHybrid 8 0.048 0.047 0.042 0.089 0.027 0.08 0.024 0.02 -0.026 0.141 0.082 -0.004 CMAandFDU 4 FengshunAdjust 10 0.044 0.057 0.028 0.074 0.021 0.01 0.025 0.014 -0.015 0.148 0.052 0.029 CMAandFDU 4 Fengshun 21 -0.015 -0.039 0.029 -0.011 0.043 -0.095 0.056 -0.049 -0.028 0.128 0.014 -0.15 UWAtmosNVIDIA 5 DLESyMS2Sv1 9 0.047 0.064 0.036 0.096 -0.026 0.027 0.019 -0.007 0.016 0.125 0.072 0.06 JR 6 slowMamba 11 0.031 0.05 0.007 0.06 0.016 0.02 -0.038 0.023 -0.004 0.039 0.045 -0.011 scienceAI 7 zephyr 12 0.027 -0.001 0.035 0.063 0.003 0.107 0.063 0.018 -0.072 -0.003 0.033 -0.024 scienceAI 7 findforecast 18 -0.001 -0.004 0.008 0.046 -0.033 -0.025 0.068 -0.035 -0.018 0.002 0.018 -0.026 scienceAI 7 ngcm 20 -0.008 -0.012 0.02 0.041 -0.01 -0.123 0.032 0.005 -0.061 -0.035 0.017 -0.005 IgnisNeuralis42 8 GCast42 13 0.008 0.035 -0.012 -0.003 -0.026 -0.015 0.039 -0.043 -0.003 0.034 0.047 -0.034 CelestScience 9 Tellus 14 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 9 KanguS2SEasyUQ 14 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 9 KanguPlusPlus 14 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 9 KanguParametricPrediction 14 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0
Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania MicroEnsemble 1 MicroDuet 1 0.044 0.035 0.101 0.043 0.005 -0.006 0.049 0.054 0.004 0.072 0.112 -0.06 MicroEnsemble 1 StillLearning 2 0.044 0.035 0.104 0.051 0.008 -0.008 0.057 0.055 0.009 0.08 0.11 -0.072 MicroEnsemble 1 Huracan 3 0.035 0.012 0.114 -0.012 0.032 -0.04 0.029 0.082 -0.016 0.002 0.123 -0.052 LP 2 LPM 4 0.019 -0.011 0.1 -0.011 0.016 -0.032 0.026 0.063 -0.013 0.008 0.099 -0.12 IgnisNeuralis42 3 GCast42 5 0.017 0.044 0.01 0.037 -0.041 -0.055 0.015 -0.018 0.005 0.037 0.041 0.017 CelestScience 4 Tellus 6 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 4 KanguS2SEasyUQ 6 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 4 KanguPlusPlus 6 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 KITKangu 4 KanguParametricPrediction 6 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 CliMA 6 CliMAWeather2 10 -0.001 -0.008 0.023 0.01 -0.041 -0.003 0.027 -0.048 -0.026 -0.009 0.053 -0.001 CliMA 6 CliMAWeather 21 -0.035 -0.062 0.002 -0.025 -0.076 0.079 0.016 -0.066 -0.153 -0.007 0.011 -0.067 AIFS 7 AIFSgaia 11 -0.014 -0.098 0.116 -0.037 0.036 -0.023 0.09 0.09 -0.099 -0.012 0.079 -0.198 AIFS 7 AIFShera 15 -0.02 -0.109 0.103 -0.073 0.052 0.035 0.083 0.043 -0.127 0.013 0.09 -0.254 AIFS 7 AIFSthalassa 20 -0.033 -0.142 0.092 -0.02 0.066 -0.002 0.044 0.088 -0.161 -0.111 0.053 -0.153 scienceAI 8 findforecast 12 -0.014 -0.03 0.024 0.004 -0.024 -0.057 0.047 -0.008 -0.025 -0.048 0.002 -0.04 scienceAI 8 zephyr 17 -0.024 -0.072 0.03 -0.027 -0.005 0.041 0.071 0.003 -0.048 -0.08 -0.01 -0.103 scienceAI 8 ngcm 22 -0.052 -0.103 0.015 -0.037 0.004 -0.079 0.049 -0.015 -0.069 -0.086 -0.035 -0.115 UWAtmosNVIDIA 9 DLESyMS2Sv1 13 -0.015 -0.047 0.051 -0.022 -0.069 0.017 0.009 0.018 -0.039 0.006 0.023 -0.093 CMAandFDU 10 Fengshun 14 -0.017 -0.048 0.021 -0.083 0.074 -0.058 -0.002 -0.056 -0.066 -0.002 0.063 -0.095 CMAandFDU 10 FengshunHybrid 18 -0.027 -0.096 0.054 -0.053 0.037 0.016 0.072 0.001 -0.085 -0.016 0.026 -0.199 CMAandFDU 10 FengshunAdjust 19 -0.027 -0.084 0.05 -0.047 0.025 -0.024 0.075 0.004 -0.049 0.006 0.037 -0.189
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
