This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the JJA 2026 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes 1 forecasts initialized between Thursday 14th May 2026 and Thursday 14th May 2026 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview .
Regional skill score files
All regional RPSSs are available to download via the following link:
JJA 2026 Regional RPSSs (Excel format)
Regional scores for the top 10 teams of global, period-aggregated, variable-averaged RPSSs
Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania CMAandFDU 1 FengshunAdjust 1 0.107 0.153 0.034 0.127 0.053 0.082 0.029 0.07 0.036 0.205 0.033 0.356 CMAandFDU 1 FengshunHybrid 2 0.094 0.141 0.005 0.148 0.047 0.103 0.004 0.037 -0.021 0.211 0.027 0.322 CMAandFDU 1 Fengshun 5 0.084 0.103 0.029 0.122 0.036 0.096 0.037 0.052 -0.013 0.153 0.021 0.326 AIFS 2 AIFShera 3 0.09 0.134 0.033 0.104 0.052 0.066 0.053 0.031 -0.095 0.208 0.072 0.338 AIFS 2 AIFSthalassa 6 0.075 0.122 0.026 0.089 0.002 0.061 0.044 -0.005 -0.124 0.193 0.072 0.345 AIFS 2 AIFSgaia 16 0.039 0.078 0.008 0.061 -0.064 0.049 0.023 -0.058 -0.174 0.143 0.051 0.323 SBUHybrid 3 HybridStillDeveloping 4 0.089 0.153 0.006 0.086 0.063 0.036 0.018 -0.006 -0.013 0.187 0.058 0.294 SBUHybrid 3 HybridPPx 12 0.053 0.089 0.012 0.012 0.067 0.022 0.054 -0.028 -0.149 0.166 0.062 0.291 SBUHybrid 3 HybridAC 17 0.036 0.065 0.015 0.013 0.011 0.026 0.019 0.006 -0.138 0.125 0.023 0.261 MicroEnsemble 4 MicroDuet 7 0.071 0.129 0.016 0.078 0.01 0.031 0.077 0.029 -0.065 0.168 0.043 0.286 MicroEnsemble 4 StillLearning 9 0.064 0.118 0.009 0.059 0.021 0.043 0.072 0.0 -0.074 0.155 0.038 0.272 MicroEnsemble 4 Huracan 22 0.018 0.033 -0.019 0.121 0.004 0.01 0.039 -0.025 -0.173 0.076 0.015 0.24 scienceAI 5 zephyr 8 0.068 0.102 0.023 0.104 0.054 0.025 0.044 0.019 -0.04 0.12 0.064 0.226 scienceAI 5 ngcm 15 0.048 0.07 0.023 0.088 0.046 -0.017 0.032 0.023 -0.077 0.097 0.049 0.19 scienceAI 5 findforecast 18 0.034 0.049 0.003 0.073 0.045 0.016 -0.055 0.018 0.046 0.074 0.021 0.023 CLINT 6 CLINTDD 10 0.063 0.104 0.007 0.102 0.009 0.066 0.034 -0.0 -0.129 0.14 0.059 0.295 CLINT 6 CLINTMF 11 0.058 0.101 -0.002 0.1 0.009 0.055 0.047 -0.014 -0.137 0.141 0.051 0.291 CLINT 6 CLINTSE 25 0.002 0.026 -0.065 0.103 -0.087 0.11 0.019 -0.106 -0.3 0.08 -0.021 0.28 UWAtmosNVIDIA 7 DLESyMS2Sv1 13 0.051 0.1 -0.017 0.121 -0.039 0.053 -0.042 -0.082 -0.194 0.138 0.061 0.382 LP 8 LPM 14 0.049 0.119 -0.008 0.063 -0.072 0.03 0.077 -0.059 -0.128 0.177 0.013 0.308 CliMA 9 CliMAWeather 19 0.032 0.059 -0.0 0.101 -0.022 -0.011 0.023 0.025 0.034 0.062 0.002 0.138 CliMA 9 CliMAWeather2 20 0.027 0.052 -0.008 0.125 -0.038 -0.027 0.024 0.027 0.014 0.062 -0.008 0.167 IgnisNeuralis42 10 GCast42 21 0.02 0.026 0.018 0.05 0.044 0.023 -0.003 0.059 -0.008 0.07 0.008 -0.025
Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania AIFS 1 AIFShera 1 0.125 0.202 0.041 -0.005 0.027 0.1 0.029 0.062 0.159 0.209 0.131 0.068 AIFS 1 AIFSthalassa 4 0.104 0.183 0.029 -0.037 0.006 0.07 0.016 0.048 0.158 0.179 0.11 0.043 AIFS 1 AIFSgaia 16 0.066 0.141 0.006 -0.079 -0.026 0.026 -0.005 0.022 0.139 0.131 0.073 0.003 CMAandFDU 2 FengshunHybrid 2 0.118 0.19 0.048 0.067 0.021 0.036 0.104 0.095 0.155 0.269 0.046 0.143 CMAandFDU 2 FengshunAdjust 3 0.117 0.168 0.066 0.031 0.013 0.102 0.111 0.09 0.15 0.267 0.069 0.06 CMAandFDU 2 Fengshun 5 0.101 0.132 0.064 -0.021 0.013 0.123 0.092 0.096 0.115 0.212 0.06 0.004 MicroEnsemble 3 MicroDuet 6 0.1 0.194 0.027 0.035 -0.011 -0.023 0.114 0.044 0.109 0.234 0.078 0.142 MicroEnsemble 3 StillLearning 8 0.095 0.183 0.036 0.026 0.006 -0.044 0.113 0.057 0.099 0.224 0.072 0.142 MicroEnsemble 3 Huracan 20 0.059 0.151 -0.027 0.042 -0.023 -0.088 0.101 -0.013 0.053 0.128 0.045 0.169 CLINT 4 CLINTDD 7 0.097 0.171 0.023 -0.047 0.024 0.071 0.067 0.062 0.109 0.182 0.093 0.065 CLINT 4 CLINTMF 10 0.091 0.169 0.017 -0.062 0.018 0.05 0.061 0.052 0.108 0.178 0.094 0.05 CLINT 4 CLINTSE 23 0.051 0.112 -0.018 -0.029 -0.049 0.101 0.034 0.047 0.061 0.096 0.008 0.032 LP 5 LPM 9 0.091 0.2 0.016 -0.006 -0.042 -0.032 0.096 0.022 0.102 0.219 0.073 0.134 scienceAI 6 zephyr 11 0.086 0.126 0.047 0.041 0.019 0.088 0.069 0.049 0.106 0.123 0.096 0.098 scienceAI 6 ngcm 17 0.065 0.087 0.032 0.077 0.023 0.061 0.077 0.021 0.057 0.093 0.041 0.113 scienceAI 6 findforecast 24 0.036 0.055 0.015 0.037 0.034 -0.021 0.004 0.012 0.064 0.086 0.029 0.056 SBUHybrid 7 HybridPPx 12 0.086 0.16 0.023 0.047 0.003 0.005 0.048 -0.009 0.045 0.168 0.099 0.205 SBUHybrid 7 HybridStillDeveloping 13 0.081 0.147 0.034 -0.008 0.002 -0.01 0.057 0.046 0.09 0.179 0.059 0.093 SBUHybrid 7 HybridAC 14 0.076 0.14 0.013 0.073 0.013 -0.022 0.03 -0.006 -0.002 0.125 0.086 0.27 yubing11 8 resaurora12h 15 0.068 0.165 -0.024 -0.022 -0.036 -0.002 0.037 0.005 0.103 0.14 0.041 0.126 MetaCarbon3060 9 PuyunWeather 18 0.064 0.155 -0.032 -0.022 -0.022 -0.014 0.024 0.023 0.114 0.137 0.013 0.118 MetaCarbon3060 9 PuyunEnsemble 33 -0.106 -0.098 -0.185 -0.053 -0.127 -0.066 -0.173 -0.069 -0.087 0.018 -0.312 0.054 MetaCarbon3060 9 PuyunLDM 41 -0.299 -0.291 -0.458 -0.091 -0.316 -0.156 -0.386 -0.234 -0.217 -0.238 -0.646 -0.051 UWAtmosNVIDIA 10 DLESyMS2Sv1 19 0.063 0.12 0.009 -0.029 -0.036 0.077 -0.033 0.019 0.001 0.096 0.07 -0.004
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Joshua Talib, last updated on Jun 19, 2026
8 minute read
