This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the JJA 2026 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes 6 forecasts initialized between Thursday 14th May 2026 and Thursday 18th June 2026 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview .
Regional skill score files
All regional RPSSs are available to download via the following link:
JJA 2026 Regional RPSSs (Excel format)
Regional scores for the top 10 teams of global, period-aggregated, variable-averaged RPSSs
Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania CMAandFDU 1 FengshunAdjust 1 0.138 0.223 0.043 0.048 0.042 0.096 0.048 0.074 0.152 0.232 0.097 0.204 CMAandFDU 1 FengshunHybrid 3 0.125 0.209 0.029 0.058 0.027 0.082 0.049 0.058 0.137 0.192 0.087 0.239 CMAandFDU 1 Fengshun 4 0.122 0.2 0.029 0.038 0.032 0.091 0.041 0.053 0.146 0.197 0.093 0.155 LP 2 LPM 2 0.131 0.236 0.031 0.062 -0.022 0.074 0.076 0.047 0.145 0.206 0.092 0.242 AIFS 3 AIFShera 5 0.121 0.208 0.009 0.079 -0.006 0.102 0.007 0.067 0.135 0.205 0.069 0.186 AIFS 3 AIFSthalassa 6 0.121 0.211 0.006 0.086 -0.008 0.096 0.015 0.052 0.14 0.183 0.073 0.215 AIFS 3 AIFSgaia 12 0.1 0.184 -0.004 0.055 -0.029 0.09 0.015 0.027 0.101 0.142 0.07 0.184 MicroEnsemble 4 MicroDuet 7 0.12 0.202 0.037 0.074 0.016 0.074 0.065 0.069 0.141 0.171 0.081 0.225 MicroEnsemble 4 StillLearning 10 0.116 0.193 0.038 0.071 0.019 0.063 0.064 0.068 0.139 0.159 0.084 0.218 MicroEnsemble 4 Huracan 15 0.081 0.151 0.007 0.079 -0.006 0.024 0.042 0.028 0.078 0.092 0.053 0.202 CLINT 5 CLINTDD 8 0.119 0.203 0.028 0.038 0.009 0.075 0.089 0.053 0.112 0.174 0.093 0.197 CLINT 5 CLINTMF 9 0.119 0.203 0.026 0.041 0.003 0.082 0.089 0.055 0.115 0.175 0.089 0.192 CLINT 5 CLINTSE 18 0.071 0.149 -0.028 -0.004 -0.044 0.104 0.068 0.003 0.022 0.082 0.026 0.17 SBUHybrid 6 HybridStillDeveloping 11 0.109 0.193 0.032 0.028 0.018 0.031 0.05 0.023 0.097 0.186 0.095 0.19 SBUHybrid 6 HybridPPx 17 0.074 0.135 0.013 0.005 0.01 0.026 0.025 -0.024 -0.007 0.168 0.075 0.154 SBUHybrid 6 HybridAC 20 0.054 0.095 0.019 -0.009 0.004 0.032 0.032 -0.032 -0.057 0.13 0.054 0.137 MetaCarbon3060 7 PuyunWeather 13 0.083 0.193 -0.028 -0.061 -0.01 0.029 0.035 -0.0 -0.05 0.149 0.103 0.264 UWAtmosNVIDIA 8 DLESyMS2Sv1 14 0.081 0.153 -0.007 0.031 0.001 0.051 0.024 -0.016 0.043 0.122 0.072 0.162 scienceAI 9 zephyr 16 0.078 0.136 0.019 0.011 0.014 0.031 0.034 0.023 0.02 0.108 0.079 0.138 scienceAI 9 ngcm 19 0.069 0.121 0.02 0.027 -0.002 0.012 0.024 0.023 0.009 0.102 0.058 0.139 scienceAI 9 findforecast 27 0.033 0.051 0.017 0.016 0.028 0.013 0.006 0.015 0.045 0.074 0.029 0.034 CliMA 10 CliMAWeather 21 0.048 0.086 0.018 0.019 -0.004 -0.014 0.009 0.02 0.039 0.073 0.038 0.115 CliMA 10 CliMAWeather2 22 0.047 0.09 0.016 0.013 -0.014 -0.03 0.006 0.018 0.019 0.074 0.042 0.142
Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania CMAandFDU 1 FengshunAdjust 1 0.139 0.224 0.064 0.018 0.039 0.073 0.062 0.087 0.157 0.209 0.115 0.183 CMAandFDU 1 FengshunHybrid 2 0.123 0.204 0.056 0.033 0.03 0.039 0.066 0.068 0.163 0.153 0.109 0.211 CMAandFDU 1 Fengshun 3 0.122 0.202 0.055 -0.014 0.03 0.058 0.051 0.075 0.148 0.176 0.115 0.12 LP 2 LPM 4 0.121 0.222 0.039 0.023 -0.014 0.013 0.075 0.027 0.169 0.156 0.119 0.205 MicroEnsemble 3 MicroDuet 5 0.112 0.194 0.043 0.034 0.009 0.033 0.051 0.051 0.156 0.135 0.103 0.192 MicroEnsemble 3 StillLearning 8 0.108 0.185 0.046 0.032 0.009 0.014 0.054 0.052 0.157 0.129 0.104 0.187 MicroEnsemble 3 Huracan 18 0.075 0.149 0.014 0.04 -0.016 -0.023 0.033 0.009 0.105 0.052 0.078 0.179 CLINT 4 CLINTDD 6 0.112 0.189 0.039 0.017 0.026 0.033 0.088 0.041 0.148 0.116 0.119 0.18 CLINT 4 CLINTMF 7 0.111 0.189 0.037 0.012 0.021 0.033 0.087 0.037 0.149 0.114 0.119 0.175 CLINT 4 CLINTSE 20 0.061 0.129 -0.013 -0.038 -0.016 0.055 0.048 -0.009 0.08 0.006 0.064 0.142 AIFS 5 AIFShera 9 0.105 0.192 0.013 0.01 -0.001 0.05 0.017 0.039 0.136 0.153 0.091 0.134 AIFS 5 AIFSthalassa 10 0.102 0.186 0.011 0.033 -0.004 0.059 0.016 0.038 0.149 0.131 0.075 0.146 AIFS 5 AIFSgaia 12 0.085 0.16 0.007 0.01 -0.025 0.046 0.014 0.031 0.134 0.113 0.053 0.092 SBUHybrid 6 HybridStillDeveloping 11 0.095 0.178 0.029 -0.002 0.006 -0.003 0.038 0.035 0.098 0.147 0.093 0.163 SBUHybrid 6 HybridPPx 16 0.076 0.15 0.012 0.008 -0.017 -0.021 0.006 -0.018 0.031 0.115 0.093 0.172 SBUHybrid 6 HybridAC 23 0.055 0.107 0.002 0.003 -0.007 -0.029 0.007 -0.043 -0.02 0.074 0.064 0.16 scienceAI 7 zephyr 13 0.079 0.135 0.027 0.006 0.021 0.026 0.044 0.034 0.057 0.081 0.094 0.132 scienceAI 7 ngcm 19 0.07 0.117 0.025 0.034 0.005 0.017 0.034 0.03 0.04 0.079 0.059 0.135 scienceAI 7 findforecast 30 0.031 0.053 0.021 0.011 0.016 -0.024 0.012 0.013 0.049 0.069 0.032 0.04 MetaCarbon3060 8 PuyunWeather 14 0.078 0.145 0.022 0.01 -0.009 0.007 0.059 0.03 0.123 0.07 0.064 0.109 MetaCarbon3060 8 PuyunEnsemble 17 0.075 0.142 0.012 0.004 -0.029 0.029 0.025 0.026 0.135 0.105 0.031 0.139 MetaCarbon3060 8 PuyunLDM 27 0.038 0.101 -0.034 -0.007 -0.058 0.015 -0.024 0.003 0.101 0.07 -0.036 0.112 UWAtmosNVIDIA 9 DLESyMS2Sv1 15 0.077 0.149 0.012 -0.024 -0.01 0.02 0.024 0.003 0.042 0.082 0.081 0.143 CliMA 10 CliMAWeather2 21 0.061 0.11 0.023 0.008 -0.002 -0.024 0.017 0.014 0.047 0.085 0.064 0.152 CliMA 10 CliMAWeather 22 0.057 0.101 0.023 0.015 0.005 -0.009 0.018 0.018 0.057 0.083 0.054 0.122
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Joshua Talib, last updated on Jul 25, 2026
8 minute read
