This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the JJA 2026 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes 9 forecasts initialized between Thursday 14th May 2026 and Thursday 9th July 2026 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview .
Regional skill score files
All regional RPSSs are available to download via the following link:
JJA 2026 Regional RPSSs (Excel format)
Regional scores for the top 10 teams of global, period-aggregated, variable-averaged RPSSs
Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania CMAandFDU 1 FengshunAdjust 1 0.149 0.242 0.046 0.09 0.034 0.092 0.054 0.077 0.215 0.22 0.094 0.234 CMAandFDU 1 FengshunHybrid 4 0.136 0.221 0.04 0.086 0.027 0.074 0.053 0.068 0.211 0.176 0.089 0.235 CMAandFDU 1 Fengshun 6 0.132 0.219 0.028 0.089 0.025 0.082 0.044 0.058 0.217 0.185 0.082 0.193 LP 2 LPM 2 0.145 0.248 0.043 0.079 0.003 0.072 0.081 0.063 0.201 0.204 0.1 0.251 AIFS 3 AIFSthalassa 3 0.139 0.231 0.022 0.114 0.01 0.1 0.033 0.064 0.211 0.176 0.081 0.219 AIFS 3 AIFShera 5 0.135 0.222 0.019 0.113 0.006 0.112 0.026 0.067 0.209 0.18 0.073 0.199 AIFS 3 AIFSgaia 11 0.119 0.204 0.015 0.091 -0.006 0.08 0.033 0.044 0.173 0.138 0.074 0.198 CLINT 4 CLINTMF 7 0.129 0.217 0.03 0.064 0.021 0.07 0.075 0.06 0.182 0.17 0.093 0.196 CLINT 4 CLINTDD 8 0.129 0.217 0.03 0.062 0.023 0.064 0.074 0.057 0.182 0.169 0.095 0.2 CLINT 4 CLINTSE 18 0.088 0.176 -0.021 0.013 -0.018 0.067 0.042 0.02 0.133 0.096 0.041 0.158 MicroEnsemble 5 MicroDuet 9 0.127 0.211 0.039 0.083 0.026 0.065 0.057 0.072 0.188 0.16 0.085 0.228 MicroEnsemble 5 StillLearning 10 0.124 0.202 0.042 0.078 0.03 0.06 0.055 0.074 0.186 0.15 0.091 0.22 MicroEnsemble 5 Huracan 14 0.094 0.171 0.008 0.093 0.004 0.013 0.041 0.039 0.159 0.089 0.054 0.197 SBUHybrid 6 HybridStillDeveloping 12 0.116 0.202 0.034 0.057 0.015 0.026 0.038 0.041 0.149 0.172 0.088 0.204 SBUHybrid 6 HybridPPx 17 0.091 0.159 0.024 0.049 0.001 0.024 0.017 0.002 0.096 0.148 0.07 0.17 SBUHybrid 6 HybridAC 24 0.074 0.123 0.027 0.047 0.003 0.026 0.023 -0.004 0.066 0.119 0.037 0.162 MetaCarbon3060 7 PuyunEnsemble 13 0.099 0.187 0.004 0.02 0.023 0.038 0.022 0.022 0.127 0.155 0.08 0.176 MetaCarbon3060 7 PuyunWeather 16 0.091 0.175 -0.004 0.019 0.019 0.038 0.032 0.031 0.098 0.133 0.068 0.197 MetaCarbon3060 7 PuyunLDM 20 0.082 0.17 -0.018 0.013 0.011 0.032 -0.006 0.006 0.108 0.138 0.06 0.168 UWAtmosNVIDIA 8 DLESyMS2Sv1 15 0.093 0.163 0.007 0.059 0.012 0.043 0.019 0.014 0.138 0.099 0.068 0.16 scienceAI 9 zephyr 19 0.086 0.139 0.026 0.039 0.017 0.032 0.047 0.034 0.086 0.09 0.071 0.136 scienceAI 9 ngcm 21 0.08 0.133 0.026 0.046 0.001 0.013 0.033 0.033 0.072 0.094 0.06 0.131 scienceAI 9 findforecast 32 0.033 0.051 0.023 0.01 0.023 -0.003 0.005 0.015 0.052 0.07 0.035 0.014 Arcana 10 ArcanaSpherical 22 0.079 0.154 -0.033 0.016 -0.008 0.096 -0.03 0.028 0.136 0.107 -0.008 0.156 Arcana 10 ArcanaSphericalv2 23 0.076 0.167 -0.048 0.016 -0.032 0.041 -0.042 -0.003 0.139 0.104 -0.009 0.206
Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania CMAandFDU 1 FengshunAdjust 1 0.142 0.234 0.059 0.058 0.027 0.06 0.065 0.086 0.212 0.2 0.091 0.198 CMAandFDU 1 FengshunHybrid 3 0.129 0.212 0.054 0.063 0.022 0.044 0.064 0.07 0.222 0.148 0.087 0.21 CMAandFDU 1 Fengshun 4 0.124 0.21 0.043 0.042 0.019 0.046 0.051 0.074 0.205 0.165 0.079 0.146 LP 2 LPM 2 0.133 0.235 0.045 0.053 -0.006 0.03 0.069 0.048 0.216 0.163 0.103 0.224 CLINT 3 CLINTDD 5 0.12 0.205 0.039 0.048 0.019 0.034 0.066 0.048 0.2 0.128 0.098 0.19 CLINT 3 CLINTMF 6 0.12 0.206 0.038 0.045 0.016 0.036 0.066 0.046 0.202 0.127 0.099 0.187 CLINT 3 CLINTSE 19 0.079 0.162 -0.013 0.002 -0.011 0.043 0.017 0.01 0.168 0.04 0.054 0.153 MicroEnsemble 4 MicroDuet 7 0.117 0.2 0.043 0.051 0.012 0.04 0.052 0.06 0.189 0.128 0.086 0.201 MicroEnsemble 4 StillLearning 8 0.114 0.191 0.047 0.053 0.012 0.031 0.049 0.062 0.19 0.124 0.092 0.195 MicroEnsemble 4 Huracan 16 0.085 0.167 0.013 0.054 -0.017 -0.02 0.04 0.027 0.176 0.058 0.056 0.178 AIFS 5 AIFSthalassa 9 0.113 0.198 0.017 0.072 -0.001 0.055 0.019 0.043 0.196 0.124 0.067 0.156 AIFS 5 AIFShera 10 0.107 0.194 0.009 0.061 0.002 0.048 0.013 0.03 0.179 0.125 0.071 0.152 AIFS 5 AIFSgaia 14 0.097 0.177 0.011 0.051 -0.018 0.039 0.016 0.036 0.179 0.111 0.048 0.109 SBUHybrid 6 HybridStillDeveloping 11 0.104 0.191 0.029 0.03 0.005 -0.001 0.034 0.04 0.166 0.144 0.078 0.169 SBUHybrid 6 HybridPPx 15 0.094 0.175 0.021 0.041 -0.013 -0.012 0.01 0.011 0.144 0.123 0.081 0.162 SBUHybrid 6 HybridAC 20 0.078 0.142 0.017 0.033 -0.004 -0.017 0.007 -0.009 0.113 0.093 0.061 0.146 MetaCarbon3060 7 PuyunEnsemble 12 0.098 0.172 0.023 0.041 -0.018 0.046 0.028 0.04 0.187 0.121 0.041 0.165 MetaCarbon3060 7 PuyunWeather 13 0.098 0.171 0.026 0.042 -0.0 0.03 0.054 0.038 0.175 0.095 0.061 0.14 MetaCarbon3060 7 PuyunLDM 22 0.072 0.143 -0.008 0.029 -0.037 0.033 -0.004 0.025 0.162 0.097 -0.005 0.142 scienceAI 8 zephyr 17 0.083 0.137 0.028 0.018 0.017 0.032 0.05 0.044 0.101 0.084 0.069 0.114 scienceAI 8 ngcm 21 0.076 0.126 0.03 0.028 0.004 0.009 0.038 0.038 0.086 0.084 0.055 0.109 scienceAI 8 findforecast 32 0.033 0.056 0.028 -0.0 0.018 -0.027 0.016 0.013 0.054 0.071 0.037 0.022 UWAtmosNVIDIA 9 DLESyMS2Sv1 18 0.081 0.149 0.014 0.018 -0.003 0.009 0.015 0.026 0.135 0.071 0.052 0.127 CliMA 10 CliMAWeather2 23 0.065 0.118 0.02 0.012 -0.004 -0.006 0.03 0.015 0.075 0.082 0.055 0.129 CliMA 10 CliMAWeather 24 0.063 0.112 0.022 0.016 0.001 0.004 0.026 0.02 0.084 0.085 0.049 0.112
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Joshua Talib, last updated on Aug 15, 2026
8 minute read
