This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the JJA 2026 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes 12 forecasts initialized between Thursday 14th May 2026 and Thursday 30th July 2026 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview .
Regional skill score files
All regional RPSSs are available to download via the following link:
JJA 2026 Regional RPSSs (Excel format)
Regional scores for the top 10 teams of global, period-aggregated, variable-averaged RPSSs
Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania CMAandFDU 1 FengshunAdjust 1 0.167 0.278 0.054 0.076 0.035 0.087 0.068 0.09 0.229 0.269 0.106 0.25 CMAandFDU 1 FengshunHybrid 4 0.155 0.258 0.047 0.075 0.028 0.078 0.065 0.082 0.223 0.228 0.1 0.257 CMAandFDU 1 Fengshun 7 0.151 0.255 0.034 0.072 0.029 0.082 0.057 0.075 0.225 0.239 0.092 0.199 LP 2 LPM 2 0.167 0.283 0.057 0.08 0.01 0.069 0.09 0.087 0.219 0.25 0.12 0.275 AIFS 3 AIFSthalassa 3 0.162 0.268 0.038 0.119 0.016 0.101 0.054 0.09 0.235 0.229 0.096 0.235 AIFS 3 AIFShera 5 0.155 0.258 0.031 0.109 0.009 0.107 0.044 0.09 0.232 0.23 0.083 0.213 AIFS 3 AIFSgaia 11 0.141 0.237 0.026 0.111 0.007 0.088 0.05 0.068 0.196 0.191 0.083 0.21 CLINT 4 CLINTMF 6 0.154 0.258 0.046 0.068 0.021 0.07 0.091 0.086 0.203 0.223 0.108 0.229 CLINT 4 CLINTDD 9 0.147 0.253 0.037 0.065 0.014 0.059 0.086 0.072 0.199 0.216 0.1 0.236 CLINT 4 CLINTSE 18 0.113 0.215 -0.004 0.024 -0.017 0.076 0.059 0.046 0.156 0.15 0.06 0.193 MicroEnsemble 5 MicroDuet 8 0.149 0.244 0.054 0.083 0.029 0.063 0.073 0.093 0.204 0.203 0.103 0.255 MicroEnsemble 5 StillLearning 10 0.145 0.234 0.058 0.08 0.032 0.065 0.073 0.093 0.201 0.192 0.112 0.247 MicroEnsemble 5 Huracan 15 0.119 0.212 0.023 0.092 0.005 0.013 0.058 0.061 0.183 0.144 0.071 0.228 SBUHybrid 6 HybridStillDeveloping 12 0.132 0.233 0.037 0.049 0.015 0.026 0.037 0.061 0.171 0.203 0.099 0.211 SBUHybrid 6 HybridPPx 21 0.105 0.192 0.02 0.042 0.002 0.017 0.02 0.01 0.126 0.189 0.071 0.166 SBUHybrid 6 HybridAC 24 0.088 0.152 0.024 0.038 0.008 0.027 0.029 -0.001 0.085 0.153 0.041 0.157 MetaCarbon3060 7 PuyunEnsemble 13 0.132 0.231 0.03 0.043 0.027 0.049 0.051 0.056 0.154 0.208 0.102 0.216 MetaCarbon3060 7 PuyunWeather 14 0.126 0.225 0.021 0.038 0.026 0.039 0.057 0.064 0.141 0.2 0.09 0.228 MetaCarbon3060 7 PuyunLDM 16 0.118 0.218 0.012 0.034 0.019 0.042 0.027 0.043 0.14 0.195 0.087 0.206 Arcana 8 ArcanaSpherical 17 0.118 0.214 -0.003 0.023 0.001 0.1 0.002 0.056 0.168 0.191 0.04 0.185 Arcana 8 ArcanaSphericalv2 19 0.111 0.219 -0.022 0.026 -0.015 0.053 -0.014 0.03 0.173 0.176 0.03 0.23 UWAtmosNVIDIA 9 DLESyMS2Sv1 20 0.108 0.19 0.011 0.055 0.007 0.051 0.021 0.028 0.159 0.123 0.075 0.172 scienceAI 10 zephyr 22 0.102 0.165 0.03 0.036 0.018 0.047 0.054 0.051 0.11 0.125 0.079 0.144 scienceAI 10 ngcm 23 0.093 0.156 0.03 0.038 0.005 0.009 0.032 0.049 0.093 0.127 0.07 0.133 scienceAI 10 findforecast 29 0.038 0.06 0.027 0.001 0.017 0.0 0.005 0.018 0.056 0.083 0.038 0.023
Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania CMAandFDU 1 FengshunAdjust 1 0.163 0.276 0.061 0.05 0.03 0.054 0.06 0.103 0.221 0.258 0.107 0.228 CMAandFDU 1 FengshunHybrid 3 0.152 0.255 0.057 0.054 0.023 0.051 0.057 0.089 0.223 0.211 0.103 0.242 CMAandFDU 1 Fengshun 5 0.146 0.252 0.045 0.034 0.021 0.05 0.047 0.095 0.204 0.232 0.093 0.168 LP 2 LPM 2 0.159 0.278 0.056 0.06 0.002 0.031 0.068 0.079 0.232 0.226 0.121 0.252 CLINT 3 CLINTMF 4 0.147 0.252 0.049 0.049 0.018 0.036 0.071 0.081 0.213 0.198 0.113 0.219 CLINT 3 CLINTDD 9 0.133 0.243 0.029 0.046 -0.005 0.034 0.06 0.064 0.213 0.184 0.087 0.21 CLINT 3 CLINTSE 18 0.105 0.205 0.003 0.014 -0.018 0.045 0.032 0.047 0.178 0.112 0.066 0.185 MicroEnsemble 4 MicroDuet 6 0.141 0.24 0.051 0.054 0.017 0.035 0.052 0.084 0.205 0.182 0.106 0.231 MicroEnsemble 4 StillLearning 7 0.137 0.228 0.057 0.053 0.021 0.035 0.05 0.084 0.206 0.174 0.113 0.222 MicroEnsemble 4 Huracan 15 0.114 0.215 0.022 0.056 -0.014 -0.016 0.042 0.052 0.196 0.134 0.073 0.21 AIFS 5 AIFSthalassa 8 0.136 0.24 0.024 0.066 0.004 0.056 0.022 0.068 0.198 0.183 0.083 0.195 AIFS 5 AIFShera 11 0.132 0.238 0.017 0.055 0.003 0.048 0.011 0.061 0.192 0.188 0.084 0.189 AIFS 5 AIFSgaia 14 0.118 0.214 0.016 0.052 -0.01 0.042 0.021 0.059 0.175 0.16 0.061 0.154 MetaCarbon3060 6 PuyunEnsemble 10 0.132 0.228 0.038 0.053 -0.003 0.044 0.033 0.073 0.207 0.194 0.075 0.206 MetaCarbon3060 6 PuyunWeather 12 0.131 0.227 0.036 0.051 0.009 0.027 0.048 0.068 0.206 0.178 0.088 0.183 MetaCarbon3060 6 PuyunLDM 17 0.113 0.205 0.014 0.042 -0.016 0.034 0.008 0.061 0.187 0.175 0.04 0.188 SBUHybrid 7 HybridStillDeveloping 13 0.125 0.226 0.035 0.027 0.01 0.005 0.031 0.064 0.18 0.195 0.093 0.18 SBUHybrid 7 HybridPPx 16 0.114 0.211 0.02 0.029 -0.003 -0.011 0.009 0.026 0.161 0.177 0.094 0.16 SBUHybrid 7 HybridAC 23 0.085 0.157 0.01 0.018 0.006 -0.012 0.005 -0.011 0.101 0.133 0.06 0.141 scienceAI 8 zephyr 19 0.1 0.165 0.03 0.021 0.02 0.042 0.047 0.056 0.108 0.117 0.077 0.142 scienceAI 8 ngcm 22 0.09 0.152 0.035 0.025 0.008 0.006 0.031 0.057 0.097 0.119 0.064 0.125 scienceAI 8 findforecast 29 0.041 0.068 0.029 -0.003 0.017 -0.017 0.006 0.024 0.062 0.085 0.041 0.028 UWAtmosNVIDIA 9 DLESyMS2Sv1 20 0.098 0.179 0.017 0.021 -0.005 0.017 0.005 0.045 0.146 0.098 0.065 0.156 Arcana 10 ArcanaSpherical 21 0.094 0.198 -0.024 0.002 -0.048 0.031 -0.001 0.024 0.123 0.193 0.009 0.186 Arcana 10 ArcanaSphericalv2 24 0.085 0.19 -0.042 -0.003 -0.058 0.02 -0.029 0.031 0.139 0.151 -0.012 0.179
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Joshua Talib, last updated yesterday at 9:02 pm
8 minute read
