This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the JJA 2026 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes 8 forecasts initialized between Thursday 14th May 2026 and Thursday 2nd July 2026 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview .
Regional skill score files
All regional RPSSs are available to download via the following link:
JJA 2026 Regional RPSSs (Excel format)
Regional scores for the top 10 teams of global, period-aggregated, variable-averaged RPSSs
Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania CMAandFDU 1 FengshunAdjust 1 0.146 0.24 0.039 0.07 0.036 0.099 0.042 0.069 0.185 0.233 0.095 0.23 CMAandFDU 1 FengshunHybrid 4 0.133 0.222 0.032 0.073 0.027 0.083 0.038 0.06 0.179 0.189 0.09 0.245 CMAandFDU 1 Fengshun 7 0.128 0.217 0.021 0.062 0.026 0.089 0.033 0.049 0.186 0.198 0.083 0.184 LP 2 LPM 2 0.143 0.25 0.035 0.069 -0.005 0.074 0.066 0.054 0.177 0.211 0.102 0.259 AIFS 3 AIFSthalassa 3 0.136 0.232 0.014 0.107 0.006 0.103 0.022 0.057 0.19 0.188 0.08 0.229 AIFS 3 AIFShera 5 0.133 0.223 0.012 0.106 0.002 0.118 0.017 0.062 0.183 0.196 0.07 0.206 AIFS 3 AIFSgaia 11 0.117 0.206 0.009 0.081 -0.009 0.084 0.023 0.039 0.154 0.147 0.075 0.206 MicroEnsemble 4 MicroDuet 6 0.129 0.217 0.037 0.08 0.023 0.068 0.05 0.069 0.168 0.174 0.091 0.241 MicroEnsemble 4 StillLearning 10 0.125 0.207 0.038 0.074 0.026 0.061 0.05 0.068 0.166 0.164 0.097 0.232 MicroEnsemble 4 Huracan 13 0.096 0.174 0.007 0.089 0.002 0.027 0.034 0.034 0.13 0.101 0.061 0.212 CLINT 5 CLINTDD 8 0.127 0.218 0.024 0.044 0.019 0.07 0.065 0.049 0.151 0.179 0.098 0.2 CLINT 5 CLINTMF 9 0.127 0.218 0.023 0.046 0.016 0.076 0.066 0.05 0.151 0.179 0.095 0.197 CLINT 5 CLINTSE 17 0.085 0.174 -0.027 -0.005 -0.026 0.083 0.039 0.01 0.096 0.104 0.039 0.161 SBUHybrid 6 HybridStillDeveloping 12 0.116 0.206 0.033 0.046 0.013 0.027 0.041 0.034 0.128 0.182 0.095 0.212 SBUHybrid 6 HybridPPx 16 0.09 0.163 0.019 0.03 0.001 0.021 0.012 -0.008 0.058 0.162 0.08 0.182 SBUHybrid 6 HybridAC 23 0.073 0.128 0.023 0.021 0.001 0.025 0.015 -0.015 0.025 0.134 0.052 0.169 UWAtmosNVIDIA 7 DLESyMS2Sv1 14 0.094 0.171 0.001 0.052 0.003 0.051 0.01 0.005 0.112 0.113 0.074 0.173 MetaCarbon3060 8 PuyunEnsemble 15 0.093 0.185 -0.007 0.002 0.015 0.035 -0.001 0.011 0.095 0.159 0.08 0.18 MetaCarbon3060 8 PuyunWeather 18 0.085 0.173 -0.015 0.003 0.013 0.032 0.017 0.018 0.064 0.136 0.07 0.204 MetaCarbon3060 8 PuyunLDM 21 0.075 0.168 -0.031 -0.004 0.003 0.03 -0.031 -0.006 0.076 0.141 0.058 0.17 scienceAI 9 zephyr 19 0.084 0.142 0.02 0.03 0.016 0.033 0.034 0.024 0.063 0.098 0.078 0.143 scienceAI 9 ngcm 20 0.078 0.133 0.021 0.042 0.001 0.009 0.023 0.023 0.052 0.101 0.061 0.141 scienceAI 9 findforecast 32 0.033 0.053 0.018 0.014 0.017 0.004 -0.003 0.011 0.047 0.076 0.032 0.023 Arcana 10 ArcanaSpherical 22 0.075 0.155 -0.049 -0.0 -0.012 0.104 -0.06 0.023 0.118 0.113 -0.014 0.154 Arcana 10 ArcanaSphericalv2 24 0.068 0.162 -0.062 -0.016 -0.037 0.044 -0.063 -0.011 0.102 0.111 -0.019 0.201
Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania CMAandFDU 1 FengshunAdjust 1 0.137 0.223 0.057 0.05 0.029 0.062 0.06 0.086 0.196 0.189 0.092 0.188 CMAandFDU 1 FengshunHybrid 3 0.124 0.204 0.053 0.056 0.026 0.041 0.061 0.069 0.21 0.138 0.09 0.201 CMAandFDU 1 Fengshun 4 0.118 0.198 0.042 0.033 0.019 0.047 0.049 0.072 0.189 0.154 0.079 0.138 LP 2 LPM 2 0.128 0.229 0.039 0.048 -0.003 0.023 0.067 0.039 0.208 0.158 0.104 0.221 CLINT 3 CLINTDD 5 0.116 0.198 0.033 0.043 0.025 0.032 0.066 0.042 0.192 0.121 0.1 0.185 CLINT 3 CLINTMF 7 0.115 0.199 0.032 0.04 0.022 0.033 0.067 0.04 0.193 0.12 0.1 0.181 CLINT 3 CLINTSE 19 0.073 0.153 -0.015 -0.01 -0.009 0.04 0.024 0.004 0.154 0.032 0.052 0.141 MicroEnsemble 4 MicroDuet 6 0.115 0.198 0.04 0.05 0.014 0.037 0.051 0.054 0.186 0.127 0.089 0.198 MicroEnsemble 4 StillLearning 8 0.112 0.19 0.043 0.05 0.014 0.025 0.048 0.057 0.187 0.123 0.093 0.194 MicroEnsemble 4 Huracan 16 0.082 0.161 0.009 0.056 -0.012 -0.023 0.04 0.02 0.164 0.053 0.058 0.175 AIFS 5 AIFSthalassa 9 0.106 0.188 0.012 0.07 -0.003 0.056 0.014 0.04 0.185 0.114 0.061 0.154 AIFS 5 AIFShera 10 0.103 0.185 0.01 0.06 -0.001 0.051 0.01 0.032 0.173 0.118 0.071 0.144 AIFS 5 AIFSgaia 12 0.091 0.168 0.008 0.049 -0.022 0.04 0.012 0.033 0.167 0.101 0.042 0.118 SBUHybrid 6 HybridStillDeveloping 11 0.1 0.183 0.026 0.03 0.008 -0.001 0.033 0.035 0.149 0.142 0.077 0.173 SBUHybrid 6 HybridPPx 15 0.088 0.167 0.013 0.04 -0.015 -0.017 -0.004 0.005 0.121 0.114 0.08 0.172 SBUHybrid 6 HybridAC 21 0.07 0.133 0.006 0.038 -0.005 -0.024 -0.008 -0.02 0.086 0.083 0.057 0.167 MetaCarbon3060 7 PuyunEnsemble 13 0.09 0.162 0.016 0.034 -0.014 0.038 0.024 0.033 0.176 0.112 0.035 0.159 MetaCarbon3060 7 PuyunWeather 14 0.089 0.161 0.019 0.036 0.003 0.019 0.049 0.029 0.164 0.082 0.058 0.132 MetaCarbon3060 7 PuyunLDM 23 0.061 0.129 -0.018 0.023 -0.037 0.025 -0.011 0.016 0.147 0.086 -0.015 0.134 scienceAI 8 zephyr 17 0.08 0.134 0.023 0.016 0.02 0.026 0.042 0.041 0.089 0.08 0.075 0.117 scienceAI 8 ngcm 20 0.072 0.121 0.025 0.028 0.007 0.009 0.032 0.037 0.073 0.077 0.056 0.11 scienceAI 8 findforecast 30 0.032 0.054 0.025 0.002 0.021 -0.027 0.01 0.016 0.054 0.068 0.036 0.018 UWAtmosNVIDIA 9 DLESyMS2Sv1 18 0.078 0.147 0.009 0.013 -0.003 0.014 0.005 0.019 0.112 0.08 0.056 0.131 CliMA 10 CliMAWeather2 22 0.062 0.113 0.016 0.011 -0.002 -0.008 0.025 0.011 0.071 0.075 0.055 0.128 CliMA 10 CliMAWeather 24 0.06 0.107 0.019 0.016 0.003 0.003 0.022 0.016 0.081 0.078 0.049 0.109
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Joshua Talib, last updated on Aug 08, 2026
8 minute read
